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Asymmetric Forecast Information and the Value of Demand Observation in Repeated Procurement

机译：不对称预测信息和重复采购中需求观察的价值

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摘要

In many supply chain relationships that continue over multiple periods, information about the hidden properties of the supply chain partners can be revealed throughout the course of the relationship. This article examines how the availability of such information affects the contracting scheme between a supplier and his manufacturer in a relationship that persists over several selling seasons. At the beginning of the first selling season, the manufacturer observes private information about the demand distribution, whereas the supplier who is less familiar with the market is endowed only with a prior belief about the market condition. When the supplier cannot observe the demand realization during the first selling period, she offers a contract that induces the manufacturer to reveal the market condition in the first selling season. However, the opportunity for the supplier to observe demand realization can result in the supplier offering the manufacturer a simple contract that does not induce the manufacturer to reveal his private information during the first selling season. In the latter case, the supplier observes the demand realization and designs the second period contract based on this information. We show that when the supplier chooses to offer such a contract, the manufacturer becomes worse-off, and it has an ambiguous effect on the performance of the supply chain.
机译：在许多持续多个时期的供应链关系中，可以在整个关系过程中揭示有关供应链合作伙伴的隐藏属性的信息。本文研究了这种信息的可用性如何影响供应商与其制造商之间的合约方案，这种关系在多个销售季节中都存在。在第一个销售旺季开始时，制造商会观察到有关需求分布的私人信息，而对市场不太熟悉的供应商只会被赋予对市场状况的先验信念。当供应商在第一个销售期间无法观察到需求的实现时，她会提供一份合同，诱使制造商在第一个销售季节揭示市场状况。但是，供应商观察需求实现的机会可能导致供应商向制造商提供简单的合同，而该合同不会诱使制造商在第一个销售季节期间披露其私人信息。在后一种情况下，供应商观察需求的实现并根据此信息设计第二期合同。我们证明，当供应商选择提供这样的合同时，制造商的处境变得更糟，并且对供应链的绩效产生模糊的影响。

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