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A Simulation of Partial Information Use in Decision Making: Implications for DSS Design

机译：决策中部分信息使用的模拟：对DSS设计的启示

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摘要

Information matrices are often the output produced by a decision support system. These matrices are a common method for expressing a decision situation under different decision-making scenarios. The decisions involved in designing a decision support system to generate the information matrix are important and involve several cost and benefit components. A designer needs guidance in making effective design decisions in this context. Such guidance can be provided by considering the relationships among specific design decisions, costs, and benefits. The general objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive framework for this purpose. This study is the first to develop and present a comprehensive cost-benefit framework for evaluating design decisions for a variety of scenarios.The specific objective of this research is to provide guidance regarding the number of available information dimensions to incorporate in a computer-based decision aid. Simulation experiments are conducted with a completely specified model based on the cost-benefit framework (including needed assumptions) to evaluate how many information dimensions to include for a specific information matrix size to achieve a balance between information use costs and decision quality. Based upon extensive simulation analyses for a hypothetical decision maker, the practical guideline found for designers is to include only the top half of the relevant information dimensions in any specific decision support system. Over a large number of repeating choice decisions, the savings in cognitive effort and information gathering costs clearly offset relatively minor losses in decision quality.
机译：信息矩阵通常是决策支持系统产生的输出。这些矩阵是表示不同决策场景下决策情况的常用方法。设计决策支持系统以生成信息矩阵所涉及的决策很重要，并且涉及多个成本和收益组件。设计师需要在这种情况下做出有效设计决策的指导。可以通过考虑特定设计决策，成本和收益之间的关系来提供这种指导。这项研究的总体目标是为此目的提供一个全面的框架。这项研究是第一个开发并提出用于评估各种方案的设计决策的综合成本效益框架的研究。该研究的具体目标是就可纳入基于计算机的决策中的可用信息维度的数量提供指导。援助。基于成本效益框架（包括所需的假设），使用完全指定的模型进行仿真实验，以评估针对特定信息矩阵大小要包括多少信息维度，以实现信息使用成本与决策质量之间的平衡。基于对假设决策者的广泛仿真分析，为设计人员找到的实用指南是在任何特定决策支持系统中仅包括相关信息维度的上半部分。在大量重复的选择决策中，节省的认知努力和信息收集成本明显抵消了决策质量中相对较小的损失。

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