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Fostering Risk Taking in Research and Development: The Importance of a Project's Terminal Value

机译：在研发中培育风险承担：项目终极价值的重要性

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摘要

Large firms face a conflict in managing a portfolio of high-risk projects. When an ongoing project is thought to have a low likelihood of success, project team members take risks to improve its chances of success. However, upper-level managers who allocate resources tend to withhold resources from a project with a low likelihood of success in favor of others in the portfolio that look more promising. Because this paucity of resources influences project team members to avoid risk, the total effect of success likelihood on risk taking is conflicted. The influence on risk taking of a project's terminal value—defined as the value that remains in the firm in the event of project failure—is unequivocally positive, because both senior management resource allocation and project team risk-taking propensity are encouraged by terminal value. Thus, firms can override the ambivalent effect of likelihood of success on project decision making by focusing attention on a project's terminal value.
机译：大公司在管理高风险项目组合方面面临冲突。当正在进行的项目被认为不太可能成功时，项目团队成员会冒风险提高其成功机会。但是，分配资源的高层管理人员倾向于从成功可能性很小的项目中保留资源，而倾向于投资组合中看起来更有希望的其他人。由于资源的匮乏会影响项目团队成员规避风险，因此成功可能性对冒险承担的总影响是矛盾的。毫无疑问，项目终极价值对风险承担的影响是积极的，因为终极价值鼓励了高级管理人员的资源分配和项目团队的冒险倾向。因此，通过将注意力集中在项目的最终价值上，企业可以克服成功可能性对项目决策产生的矛盾影响。

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