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首页> 外文期刊>Defence and peace economics >EMPIRICAL BIASES AND SOME REMEDIES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SELECTIVE REENLISTMENT BONUSES ON REENLISTMENT RATES
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EMPIRICAL BIASES AND SOME REMEDIES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SELECTIVE REENLISTMENT BONUSES ON REENLISTMENT RATES

机译：估算选择性重新入职奖金对重新入学率的影响的经验偏见和一些补救措施

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摘要

Researchers have, for decades, been attempting to estimate the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on the probability of reenlistment for the military services. SRBs are targeted to specific military occupations for which reenlistment rates are lower (or expected to be lower) than what is needed. This article first identifies four primary sources of biases affecting these models: reverse causality from supply shifts (a negative bias), the endogeneity of the decision point causing coded SRBs to be higher for reenlisters than leavers (a positive bias), measurement error (a likely negative bias), and excess supply preventing the full effect of an SRB change to materialize (a positive or negative bias). The report proceeds to develop a model that attempts to address the first two biases. With U.S. Navy data from FY2001-FY2008, I examine the extent to which these two biases are affecting the estimated SRB effects. Despite these corrections, the difficulty of addressing the other biases calls into doubt studies that examine the effects of retention bonuses or even the effects of the structure of military pay in general.
机译：几十年来，研究人员一直在尝试估计选择性重新入伍奖金（SRB）对重新服兵役的可能性的影响。 SRB的目标是特定的军事职业，其重新入伍率低于（或预计会低于）所需军种。本文首先确定了影响这些模型的四个主要偏差源：供应转移的反向因果关系（负偏差），决策点的内生性导致再入伍者的编码SRB高于离开者（正偏差），测量误差（可能会产生负偏差），而过多的供应会阻止SRB变更完全实现（正偏差或负偏差）。该报告着手建立一个模型，试图解决前两个偏差。利用2001-2008财年的美国海军数据，我研究了这两个偏差在多大程度上影响了SRB的估计影响。尽管进行了这些更正，但解决其他偏见的难度还是引发了质疑研究，这些研究检查了留存奖金的影响，或者甚至是总体上军费结构的影响。

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