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Modelling the Duration of Conflicts Between Contiguous Antagonists:Reassessing the Role of Salient Borders and Political Regimes

机译：模拟连续敌对者之间冲突持续时间：重新评估显着边界和政治制度的作用

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Several studies have devoted considerable energy toward explaining the occurrence of international conflicts between contiguous states. Despite the well-developed multidis-ciplinary approaches analyzing militarized disputes, which have predominately focused on studying the geographical dimension as an additional explanatory predictor of rivalry disputes, only very few research papers have considered modelling the duration of conflicts between neighbouring states. Using the event history analysis, we propose, rather than investigating the standard theoretical questions of why neighbouring states do fight each other, or alternatively, what factors commonly influence the dispute outcomes between those rival countries, instead to answer the question: Once it breaks out, what role does the geographic proximity of opponent states play when interacting with other factors, extending or conversely shortening the crisis period? One of the most relevant insights of the present work is that disputes that occur between adjacent countries tend to be shorter when joint democracies are involved, and when countries are dependent economically on each other. The presence of a territorial issue at stake or a long history of hostility over disputed areas tends to prolong the tension period as those disputes often include nationalism dimensions that increase the difficulty of reconciling the divergent views on the issues at stake. On the contrary, the present research does not provide strong support for some of the theoretical suggestions formulated by certain scholars regarding the positive correlation between the nature of opposing powers and the duration of conflict between neighbours.
机译：多项研究已投入大量精力来解释相邻国家之间国际冲突的发生。尽管分析军事争端的方法已经非常完善，但多学科的方法主要集中于研究地理维度，作为竞争性争端的另一种解释性预测指标，但只有极少数研究论文考虑过对邻国之间冲突持续时间进行建模。我们使用事件历史分析来提出问题，而不是研究为什么邻国之间会互相搏斗的标准理论问题，或者是由哪些因素通常影响那些对立国家之间的争端结果，而是提出一个问题： ，在与其他因素互动，延长或反过来缩短危机时期时，对手国的地理位置接近性起什么作用？当前工作中最相关的见解之一是，当涉及联合民主国家以及国家在经济上相互依赖时，相邻国家之间发生的争端往往会更短。领土问题的存在或对争端地区的长期敌对历史长期存在，这往往会延长紧张时期，因为这些争端往往包括民族主义层面，这加剧了调解对所涉问题的分歧意见的难度。相反，本研究并未为某些学者提出的有关对立权力的性质与邻国之间的冲突持续时间之间的正相关性的理论建议提供有力的支持。

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  • 来源
    《Defence Studies》 |2014年第1期|1-29|共29页
  • 作者

    BECHIR BOUZID;

  • 作者单位

    World Bank, Washington D.C.;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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