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首页> 外文期刊>Defence Studies >Water Conflict in Central Asia - Is There Potential for the Desiccation of the Aral Sea or Competition for the Waters of Kazakhstan's Cross-Border Ili and Irtysh Rivers to Bring about Conflict; and Should the UK be Concerned?
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Water Conflict in Central Asia - Is There Potential for the Desiccation of the Aral Sea or Competition for the Waters of Kazakhstan's Cross-Border Ili and Irtysh Rivers to Bring about Conflict; and Should the UK be Concerned?

机译：中亚地区的水冲突-咸海是否会枯竭或哈萨克斯坦的伊利河和额尔齐斯河跨境水域竞争可能引发冲突；英国应该受到关注吗？

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摘要

There are conflicting views as to whether water scarcity will lead to cooperation or conflict. The central thesis of this paper is that conflict over water scarcity only becomes likely when it causes an existential threat to a population or state. The paper identifies a requirement for a new definition of the most severe levels of water scarcity in response to the concept of virtual water and proposes a new definition for absolute water scarcity based upon the presence of an existential threat to a population. Using the principles identified from a review of the water conflict debate and the new definition, the paper examines two Central Asian case studies to gauge the likelihood of conflict. In the case of the Aral Sea it concludes that regional geopolitics, assisted by international organisations should be able to find a compromise. In the case of Kazakhstan's Ili and Irtysh Rivers it takes the view that water scarcity, demographics and geopolitics are likely to cause China to export its insecurity to other nations. In so doing it may cause conflict that should be a concern to the UK and other nations.
机译：关于水资源短缺会导致合作还是冲突，存在着不同的观点。本文的中心论点是，关于水资源短缺的冲突只有在对人口或州造成生存威胁时才有可能发生。本文根据虚拟水的概念确定了对最严重缺水水平的新定义的要求，并根据对人口的生存威胁提出了对绝对缺水的新定义。本文利用对水冲突辩论的回顾和新定义中确定的原则，研究了两个中亚案例研究，以评估冲突的可能性。以咸海为例，它得出的结论是，在国际组织的协助下，区域地缘政治应该能够找到折衷方案。以哈萨克斯坦的伊犁河和额尔齐斯河为例，它认为水资源短缺，人口统计和地缘政治可能导致中国将其不安全因素出口到其他国家。这样做可能会引起冲突，这是英国和其他国家应该关注的问题。

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