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Research on prediction of economic fluctuations based on agent simulation

机译：基于Agent模拟的经济波动预测研究

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The economic system is a typical complex system, which consists of various kinds of economic agents. In consequence, the according research methods should focus on new tools, which adapt to complex system study, instead of the traditional equilibrium static modeling methods. In this paper, we set up a simple market economy MS model based on the foregoing methods. This paper designs agent models for four different nodes agents, and enterprise, government and foreign trade actions, and makes an economy simulation in which the author apply created MS modeling to simulate the basic status. We have made policy recommendations, that the Government should continue to steadily promote the reform of the market economy system, assure their roles well, reduced the unnecessary intervention on the economy, meanwhile improved own macroeconomic regulation level to prevent surplus macroeconomic fluctuations, and promoted the healthy development of the economy. The principles and steps, which should be followed in agent-based complex systems modeling and simulations is established.
机译：经济系统是典型的复杂系统，由各种经济主体组成。因此，相应的研究方法应侧重于适应复杂系统研究的新工具，而不是传统的平衡静态建模方法。本文基于上述方法建立了一个简单的市场经济MS模型。本文设计了四个不同节点代理以及企业，政府和外贸行为的代理模型，并进行了经济仿真，作者在其中应用了创建的MS建模来仿真基本状态。我们提出了政策建议，政府应继续稳步推进市场经济体制改革，确保其作用，减少对经济的不必要干预，同时提高自身的宏观调控水平，防止宏观经济过剩波动，并促进经济健康发展。建立了在基于代理的复杂系统建模和仿真中应遵循的原理和步骤。

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