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Study on dynamic effect mechanism between service trade fluctuation and the growth of service industry

机译：服务贸易波动与服务业增长之间的动力效应机制研究

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This study explains the theory of the service trade and service industry economic growth briefly, and makes relevant reasonable assumptions, and applies econometric methods to carry out case study. The selected data includes economic growth data of service industry and import and export data of service trade, and the time node is from 1985 to 2006. The econometric methods used include co-integration theory and Granger causality relationship test, and the results of co-integration analysis shows that the variable value of each group is non-stationary, but they are all a single whole sequence. The results of cointegration test show that there has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables. From a long-term perspective, encouraging measures should be taken for the export of service trade, thus widening the economic growth of the service industry. The results of Granger causality test show that, from the policy we should give full play to the role of service trade export, and encourage imports to promote the economic growth of the service industry; For the economic growth of service industry, service trade import sometimes has lag effect, focusing on the future, the policy formulation shall be prudent. The import and export of service trade influence each other, and one-way causal relationship exists between the two in different period. Finally, this study puts forward the development path of service trade and service economy, and the cooperation of three can improve current situation of China???s service trade, promoting the international competitiveness in the end.
机译：本研究简要解释了服务贸易和服务业经济增长的理论，做出了合理的假设，并运用计量经济学的方法进行了案例研究。选择的数据包括服务业的经济增长数据和服务贸易的进出口数据，时间节点为1985年至2006年。所使用的计量经济学方法包括协整理论和Granger因果关系检验，以及协整结果。积分分析表明，每个组的变量值都是非平稳的，但它们都是单个完整序列。协整检验的结果表明，变量之间存在长期稳定的平衡关系。从长远角度来看，应采取鼓励措施出口服务贸易，从而扩大服务业的经济增长。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明，从政策上，我们应充分发挥服务贸易出口的作用，并鼓励进口促进服务业的经济增长;对于服务业的经济增长，服务贸易进口有时会产生滞后效应，着眼于未来，应谨慎制定政策。服务贸易进出口相互影响，在不同时期两者之间存在单向因果关系。最后，本研究提出了服务贸易和服务经济的发展路径，三者的合作可以改善中国服务贸易的现状，最终提高国际竞争力。

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