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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making >Discover high-risk factor combinations using Bayesian network from cohort data of National Stoke Screening in China
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Discover high-risk factor combinations using Bayesian network from cohort data of National Stoke Screening in China

机译：使用贝叶斯网络从中国国家卒中筛查队列数据中发现高风险因素组合

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In recent years, the increasing incidence and prevalence of stroke has brought a heavy economic burden on families and society in China. The Ministry of Health of the Peoples’ Republic of China initiated the national stroke screening and intervention program in 2011 for stroke prevention and control. In the screening, only those who have been classified to “potential high-risk” group in preliminary screening need further examination and physician confirmation to determine the risk level of stroke in rescreening. However, at the beginning of the program, the “potential high-risk” classification method in the preliminary screening are determined by experts based on their experience. The primary aim of this study is to study the causality of stroke and risk factors in middle-aged population using the cohort data, and to explore whether the stroke screening and intervention program should include more precise “potential high-risk” evaluation criteria for this age group in preliminary screening. We use the cohort data of screening between 2013 and 2017 in this study. After data cleaning, the cohort consists of 48,007 people aged from 40 to 59 who are free of stroke at baseline. We use Bayesian networks to develop models. The results show that the stroke incidence in middle-aged population with certain two risk factors is higher than some of that with three factors, which is in keeping with our previous study results. We can take the ratio of the stroke incidence with combinations of risk factors and incidence without any of the risk factors as a variable threshold. By adjusting the threshold, we can get precise stroke preliminary screening criteria to achieve a balance between economy and efficiency. We find that the criteria used in preliminary screening are not reasonable enough. There is a need for national stroke screening and intervention program to further include some more important risk factors or combinations of two risk factors as classification criteria in the preliminary screening. The results of the study can directly guide stroke screening program in China to make the screening more accurate and efficient.
机译：近年来，中风的发病率和患病率的上升给中国家庭和社会带来了沉重的经济负担。中华人民共和国卫生部于2011年启动了国家中风筛查和干预计划，以预防和控制中风。在筛查中，只有那些在初步筛查中被归类为“潜在高危”人群的患者才需要进一步检查和医师确认，以确定重新筛查中风的风险水平。但是，在程序开始时，初步筛选中的“潜在高风险”分类方法是由专家根据他们的经验确定的。这项研究的主要目的是使用队列数据研究中年人群中风和危险因素的因果关系，并探讨中风筛查和干预计划是否应为此包括更精确的“潜在高风险”评估标准。初步筛查的年龄组。在这项研究中，我们使用2013年至2017年之间的筛查队列数据。数据清理后，该队列由40007名年龄在40至59岁之间的人组成，他们在基线时没有中风。我们使用贝叶斯网络来开发模型。结果表明，具有两个危险因素的中年人群的卒中发生率高于具有三个危险因素的中年人群，这与我们先前的研究结果相吻合。我们可以将中风发生率与危险因素和无任何危险因素的发生率的组合作为可变阈值。通过调整阈值，我们可以获得精确的行程初步筛选标准，以实现经济性和效率之间的平衡。我们发现初步筛选中使用的标准不够合理。全国性卒中筛查和干预计划需要在初步筛查中进一步包括一些更重要的危险因素或两种危险因素的组合作为分类标准。研究结果可直接指导中国的卒中筛查计划，使筛查更准确，更有效。

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