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Centenarians and supercentenarians: a black swan. Emerging social, medical and surgical problems

机译：百岁老人和超百岁老人：黑天鹅。新兴的社会，医疗和外科问题

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The Black Swan Theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan”. This theory refers to “high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations”. According to Taleb’s criteria, a Black Swan Event is a surprise, it has a major impact and after the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected. For most of human history centenarians were a rare and unpredictable phenomenon. The improvements of the social-environmental conditions, of medical care, and the quality of life caused a general improvement of the health status of the population and a consequent reduction of the overall morbidity and mortality, resulting in an overall increase of life expectancy. The study of centenarians and supercentenarians had the objective to consider this black swan and to evaluate the health, welfare, social and economic consequences of this phenomenon.
机译：纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）在他的《黑天鹅》一书中描述了黑天鹅理论。该理论指的是“超出正常预期范围的高影响力，难以预测的罕见事件”。根据Taleb的标准，“黑天鹅事件”令人吃惊，它具有重大影响，事后，事后看来，该事件已得到合理化，就象预期那样。在人类的大多数历史中，百岁老人是一种罕见且不可预测的现象。社会环境条件，医疗保健和生活质量的改善引起了人口健康状况的普遍改善，从而降低了总体发病率和死亡率，从而导致了预期寿命的总体增加。对百岁老人和超百岁老人的研究旨在研究这种黑天鹅，并评估这种现象对健康，福利，社会和经济的影响。

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