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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Medical Education >Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study
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Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study

机译：医学院申请表的选择者无法预测医生的不满和不满：一项前瞻性，纵向研究

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Background Personal statements and referees' reports are widely used on medical school application forms, particularly in the UK, to assess the suitability of candidates for a career in medicine. However there are few studies which assess the validity of such information for predicting unhappiness or dissatisfaction with a career in medicine. Here we combine data from a long-term prospective study of medical student selection and training, with an experimental approach in which a large number of assessors used a paired comparison technique to predict outcome. Methods Data from a large-scale prospective study of students applying to UK medical schools in 1990 were used to identify 40 pairs of doctors, matched by sex, for whom personal statements and referees' reports were available, and who in a 2002/3 follow-up study, one pair member was very satisfied and the other very dissatisfied with medicine as a career. In 2005, 96 assessors, who were experienced medical school selectors, doctors, medical students or psychology students, used information from the doctors' original applications to judge which member of each pair of doctors was the happier, more satisfied doctor. Results None of the groups of assessors were significantly different from chance expectations in using applicants' personal statements and the referees' reports to predict actual future satisfaction or dissatisfaction, the distribution being similar to binomial expectations. However judgements of pairs of application forms from pairs of doctors showed a non-binomial distribution, indicating consensus among assessors as to which doctor would be the happy doctor (although the consensus was wrong in half the cases). Assessors taking longer to do the task concurred more. Consensus judgements seem mainly to be based on referees' predictions of academic achievement (even though academic achievement is not actually a valid predictor of happiness or satisfaction). Conclusion Although widely used in medical student selection to assess motivation, interest and commitment to a medical career, the personal statement and the referee's report cannot validly be used by assessors, including experienced medical school selectors, to identify doctors who will subsequently be dissatisfied with a medical career.
机译：背景信息个人陈述和裁判的报告被广泛用于医学院的申请表，尤其是在英国，以评估候选人从事医学职业的适合性。然而，很少有研究评估此类信息对预测医学职业的不满或不满的有效性。在这里，我们将对医学生的选择和培训进行的长期前瞻性研究的数据与实验方法相结合，在该方法中，大量评估者使用配对比较技术来预测结果。方法使用1990年对英国医学院校学生进行的大规模前瞻性研究数据，确定40对按性别匹配的医生，可获得其个人陈述和裁判报告，并在2002/3年随访向上的学习中，一对成员非常满意，另一对成员对医学的职业非常不满。 2005年，有96名评估员是经验丰富的医学院选拔人员，医生，医学生或心理学专业的学生，​​他们使用医生原始申请书中的信息来判断每对医生中哪个成员更快乐，更满意。结果在使用申请人的个人陈述和裁判的报告来预测未来的实际满意度或不满意率方面，评估者组与机会期望均无显着差异，分布与二项式期望相似。但是，来自医生对的申请表对的判断显示出非二项式分布，表明评估者对哪位医生将是快乐的医生达成了共识（尽管在一半情况下共识是错误的）。评估者花费更长的时间来完成任务需要更多的同意。共识判断似乎主要基于裁判员对学业成绩的预测（即使学业成绩实际上并不是幸福或满意度的有效预测指标）。结论尽管医学生选择中广泛使用了个人陈述和对医学职业的兴趣和承诺，但是评估人员（包括经验丰富的医学院校选择者）不能有效地使用个人陈述和裁判报告来确定随后对医学专业不满意的医生。医疗事业。

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