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The balance between fiscal consolidation and non-oil growth: The case of the UAE

机译：财政整合与非石油增长之间的平衡：阿联酋

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This research paper attempts to address the impact of oil price shocks on fiscal consolidation by taking into account numerous channels through which macroeconomic drivers can affect economic growth for the UAE economy. A small-scale macroeconomic model comprising of six econometric equations has been estimated using the OLS method over the period 1980–2015.The results show that the oil price fluctuation has a significant impact on banks' liquidity, domestic credit and foreign direct investment, but a negligible effect on non-oil GDP growth, assuming that the government keeps the same level of spending, i.e., no fiscal consolidation pro-cyclical stance with the decline in oil price. However, the budget deficit and the need for financing would grow significantly. Moreover, using different scenarios for the pace of fiscal consolidation going forward, the model suggests that government expenditure is quite effective in raising aggregate demand and supporting non-oil real growth, in line with the UAE's vision 2021.
机译：本研究论文试图通过考虑宏观经济驱动因素可以影响阿联酋经济增长的众多渠道来解决石油价格冲击对财政整顿的影响。在1980-2015年期间，使用OLS方法估计了一个由六个计量经济学方程式组成的小规模宏观经济模型。结果表明，油价波动对银行的流动性，国内信贷和外国直接投资有重大影响，但假设政府保持相同水平的支出，即对石油价格下跌没有财政整顿的顺周期立场，则对非石油GDP增长的影响可以忽略不计。但是，预算赤字和融资需求将大大增加。此外，模型采用了不同的方案来进行未来的财政整合，该模型表明，政府支出在提高总需求和支持非石油实际增长方面非常有效，符合阿联酋2021年的愿景。

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