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Modeling the Effects of Drought in UrbanEconomies Using Regional Input-Output Analysis

机译：利用区域投入产出分析模拟干旱对城市经济的影响

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Aim: This research examines the economic impacts of drought severity and duration to interdependent production sectors in an urban catchment.Methodology: We developed a dynamic water input-output model extension to analyze the drought vulnerability and resilience of economic sectors in an urban region. The model utilizes the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which encompasses 65 economic sectors in our regional analysis. The model is applied to a case study of the United States (US) National Capital Region, a predominantly urban region that is considered one of the major economic drivers of the US.Results: Simulation results identify the critical economic sectors that experience the highest inoperability and economic losses as a result of water reduction schemes implemented during drought events. In the two scenarios studied (drought warning and drought emergency), sectors exhibit disproportionate levels of resilience and sensitivity to the magnitude and duration of water reduction. In each case, the economic loss and inoperability rankings of critical sectors differ due to differences in the quantity and value of the sectors’ production outputs.Conclusion: Observed data trends provide valuable insights for decision makers in formulating drought preparedness policies, water conservation programs, and short-term responses aimed to reduce water consumption in cases of emergency. The dynamic water reallocation I-O model developed in this study can be applied to other drought-prone regions and be used to generate insights on the economic consequences of drought, ecosystem thresholds, and water reallocation strategies that minimize the economic impacts of prolonged drought events and their ripple effects across sectors.
机译：目的：本研究探讨干旱严重程度和持续时间对城市流域内相互依赖的生产部门的经济影响。方法：我们开发了动态水投入产出模型扩展，以分析城市地区经济部门的干旱脆弱性和恢复力。该模型利用了北美行业分类系统（NAICS），该系统涵盖了我们区域分析中的65个经济部门。该模型应用于美国国家首都地区的案例研究，该地区主要是城市地区，被认为是美国的主要经济驱动力之一。结果：仿真结果确定了无法操作性最高的关键经济部门干旱期间实施的减水计划造成的经济损失。在所研究的两种情况下（干旱预警和干旱紧急情况），各部门的抵御能力水平以及对节水幅度和持续时间的敏感性不成比例。在每种情况下，关键部门的经济损失和无法操作的排名因部门生产产量的数量和价值的不同而有所不同。结论：观察到的数据趋势为决策者制定防旱政策，节水计划，旨在减少紧急情况下的用水量的短期应对措施。这项研究中开发的动态水分配IO模型可以应用于其他干旱多发地区，并可以用于得出有关干旱的经济后果，生态系统阈值和水分配策略的见解，以最大程度地减少长期干旱事件及其造成的经济影响跨部门的连锁反应。

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