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Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

机译：期刊指标趋势分析：新的大学图书馆服务？

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Objective Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. Methods The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. Results The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Conclusions Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.
机译：客观分析了三种顶级护理期刊的每篇论文源标准化影响（SNIP）值的时间趋势，并进行了比较，以探讨基于趋势分析预测未来SNIP值是否可以成为图书馆员的一项创新服务。方法根据2015年SNIP值，《国际护理研究杂志》，《护理奖学金杂志》和《高级护理杂志》是三大顶级护理杂志。从Scopus数据库检索所选期刊的SNIP值，并将提取的数据导出到Joinpoint趋势分析软件以进行趋势分析。结果《国际护理研究杂志》的SNIP值趋势最稳定，最积极，而《高级护理杂志》的SNIP值趋势最负。最新趋势线的年度百分比变化是预测未来SNIP值的最佳指标，在《国际护理研究杂志》中是最大的。结论基于统计连接点回归的期刊指标预测可能并不完全准确。但是，使用这种技术，图书馆员可以合理地声称将来会保留甚至提高声誉的期刊，从而可以安全地向准作者建议在何处发表研究成果。

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