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首页> 外文期刊>Canadian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences >IMPACT OF RISING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL STORMS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
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IMPACT OF RISING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL STORMS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

机译：上升的海面温度对北印度洋热带风暴频率及其关系的影响

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摘要

Analysis of 118 years of data relating to tropical storms highlights that there is a significant change in frequency of tropical storms with rising Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) environment over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) on annual, seasonal and sub-seasonal scales. Decadal variability study pointed out that time-series of annual frequency of tropical storms and SST datasets reveal conspicuous turning points in the years, 1970 and 1966 respectively, which coincide with the starting of global warming period. Further there is a significant decreasing trend in the former, while a clear cut increasing tendency is observed in the SSTs field and both trends are statistically significant at 1% level over the NIO. The relationship between them is inverse and the coefficient of correlation between them is -0.52. Next, tropical severe cyclones, which appear maximum in the month of November over NIO have a direct relationship with rising SSTs and a coefficient of correlation between them is to a tune of 0.89 for the above study period. Secondly in the context of recent global warming scenario, datasets (1981-2008) relating to frequency of the tropical systems over the BOB are analyzed in Pre and Post-monsoon seasons; it is observed that there is a clear cut decreasing trend. To find out the possible reason for the decreasing trend, the authors also examined the possible relationships among frequency of the tropical systems, SSTs over the BOB, Madden & Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) Indices separately. Total number of systems over the BOB is highly influenced by above SSTs only in the Pre-monsoon season, while they are significantly correlated with MJO and SO Indices in the Post-monsoon season. Above relationships are very robust in the month of November due to high frequency of tropical cyclones in every year. Finally there is a contrasting difference in the frequency of total number of tropical cyclones in the years of El Nino and La Nina episodes.
机译：对与热带风暴有关的118年数据的分析表明，在北印度洋（NIO）的年度，季节性和次季节尺度上，热带风暴的发生频率会随着海表温度（SST）环境的升高而发生显着变化。年代际变率研究指出，热带风暴和SST数据的年频率时间序列分别揭示了1970年和1966年的明显转折点，这与全球变暖期的开始相吻合。此外，前者有显着的下降趋势，而在SSTs领域则观察到明显的上升趋势，并且这两种趋势在统计上都比NIO高1％。它们之间的关系是相反的，它们之间的相关系数是-0.52。其次，热带强烈气旋在11月的NIO出现最多，与SST的上升有直接关系，在上述研究期间，它们之间的相关系数约为0.89。其次，在近期全球变暖的背景下，分析了季风前后季风前后BOB热带系统频率的数据集（1981-2008）。观察到明显的下降趋势。为了找出下降趋势的可能原因，作者还分别研究了热带系统频率，BOB上的海表温度，Madden＆Julian涛动（MJO）和南方涛动（SO）指数之间的可能关系。 BOB上的系统总数仅在季风前季节受上述SST的影响很大，而在季风后季节与MJO和SO指数显着相关。由于每年热带气旋的频繁发生，上述关系在11月份非常稳定。最后，在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜发作的年份，热带气旋总数的频率存在明显的差异。

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