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首页> 外文期刊>Cancer Communications >Incidence trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 1987 to 2011 in Sihui County, Guangdong Province, South China: an age-period-cohort analysis
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Incidence trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 1987 to 2011 in Sihui County, Guangdong Province, South China: an age-period-cohort analysis

机译：1987-2011年广东省四会县鼻咽癌的发病趋势：年龄-年龄-队列分析

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摘要

In the past several decades, declining incidences of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) have been observed in Chinese populations in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Los Angeles, and Singapore. A previous study indicated that the incidence of NPC in Sihui County, South China remained stable until 2002, but whether age, diagnosis period, and birth cohort affect the incidence of NPC remains unknown. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of NPC incidence based on the world standard population were examined in both males and females in Sihui County from 1987 to 2011. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to quantify the changes in incidence trends. A Poisson regression age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, diagnosis period, and birth cohort on the risk of NPC. The ASRs of NPC incidence during the study period were 30.29/100,000 for males and 13.09/100,000 for females. The incidence of NPC remained stable at a non-significant average annual percent change of 0.2% for males and −1.6% for females throughout the entire period. A significantly increased estimated annual percent change of 6.8% (95% confidence interval, 0.1%–14.0%) was observed from 2003 to 2009 for males. The relative risk of NPC increased with advancing age up to 50–59 and decreased at ages 60 years. The period effect curves on NPC were nearly flat for males and females. The birth cohort effect curve for males showed an increase from the 1922 cohort to the 1957 cohort and a decrease thereafter. In females, there was an undulating increase in the relative risk from the 1922 cohort to the 1972 cohort. The incidence trends for NPC remained generally stable in Sihui from 1987 to 2011, with an increase from 2003 to 2009. The relative risks of NPC increased in younger females.
机译：在过去的几十年中，在香港，台湾，洛杉矶和新加坡的中国人口中，鼻咽癌（NPC）的发病率不断下降。先前的研究表明，华南四会县的NPC发病率一直保持稳定，直到2002年，但是年龄，诊断时期和出生队列是否会影响NPC的发病率尚不清楚。 1987年至2011年，对四会县男性和女性的NPC发病年龄标准化率（ASR）进行了调查，并进行了回归分析以量化发病趋势的变化。使用Poisson回归年龄组模型评估年龄，诊断期和出生组对NPC风险的影响。在研究期间，NPC发病率的ASR为男性为30.29 / 100,000，女性为13.09 / 100,000。在整个期间，NPC的发生率保持稳定，男性的平均年变化率为0.2％，女性的平均年变化率为-1.6％，无明显变化。从2003年到2009年，男性的估计年度百分比变化显着提高了6.8％（95％置信区间，0.1％–14.0％）。 NPC的相对风险随着年龄的增长而提高，最高年龄为50-59岁，而随着年龄的增长，> 60岁时则降低。男性和女性对NPC的周期效应曲线几乎平坦。男性的出生队列效应曲线显示，从1922年队列增加到1957年队列，此后有所下降。在女性中，从1922年队列到1972年队列的相对风险在不断增加。 1987年至2011年，四会市人大代表发病率总体保持稳定，2003年至2009年有所增加。年轻女性中人大代表的相对危险性增加。

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