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Forest fire propagation simulations for a risk assessment methodology development for a nuclear power plant

机译：森林火灾传播模拟，用于开发核电厂的风险评估方法

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Highlights ? Potential challenges to a nuclear power plant (NPP) by a forest fire are analyzed. ? Forest fire propagation simulations are performed on a typical NPP site condition in Japan. ? Intensity and key parameters related to “heat” and “flame” effects are evaluated. ? The parameters are sensitive to prevailing wind speed and relative humidity. ? Loss of offsite power of a NPP is recognized as a possible subsequence by a forest fire. Abstract After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant [NPP] accident, there has been an increased concern with the safety of NPPs in terms of external hazards, one of which is a forest fire which can create potential challenges to safety functions and the structural integrity of an NPP. As a part of the development of a risk assessment methodology for forest fires as an external hazard, forest fire propagation simulations have been performed by using the FARSITE simulator. These simulations have been used to evaluate two intensity parameters (i.e. fireline intensity and reaction intensity) and three other key parameters (i.e. flame length, rate-of-spread, and forest fire arrival time) which are related to “heat” and “flame” effects on an NPP. Sensitivity analyses for a wide range of weather conditions were performed in order to identify the variable ranges of the intensity and other key parameters. The location studied was selected from among areas with typical topographical and vegetation surrounding NPPs in Japan. The NPP is facing the sea and surrounded by hills, distanced from an urban area, with mostly broad leaf forests, several paddy fields and a few pasture areas. Low-to-high frequency weather conditions have been utilized in this analysis; forest fire propagation simulations were performed “with/without prevailing wind” (i.e. 0–24m/s wind speed) and “high/low values for ambient temperature and relative humidity” (?4.3 to 37°C and 5–99%, respectively) according to the recorded data ranges for the typical NPP site. The maximum values of fireline intensity and rate-of-spread are 4.7×10 2 kW/m and 2.4m/min and they depend very much on prevailing wind speed and relative humidity (around 2.3 and 1.8 times respectively) but less on ambient temperature (around 1.1 times). Reaction intensity and flame length change within relatively narrow ranges (around 1.7 and 1.5 times respectively) even for all the variation in weather parameters. The forest fire arrival time at the site is reduced by a factor of 5 with changing prevailing wind speed from the recorded-highest to zero. The arrival time increases some 3.4 times with the highest humidity compared to the recorded-lowest conditions, although it is changed little even by varying ambient temperature. Given that this study shows that the maximum height of a flame on a canopy top is close to the range of power line height, a loss of offsite power is recognized as a possible subsequent event during a forest fire.
机译：强调 ？分析了森林大火对核电厂的潜在挑战。 ？森林火灾传播模拟是在日本典型的NPP现场条件下进行的。 ？评估与“热”和“火焰”效应有关的强度和关键参数。 ？该参数对主要风速和相对湿度敏感。 ？一场森林大火将核电厂的场外电力损失视为可能的后果。摘要福岛第一核电站事故发生后，人们越来越关注核电厂的安全性，包括外部火灾，其中之一是森林大火，可​​能对安全功能和核电厂的结构完整性造成潜在挑战。 NPP。作为将森林火灾作为外部危害的风险评估方法的一部分，使用FARSITE模拟器进行了森林火灾传播模拟。这些模拟已用于评估与“热”和“火焰”有关的两个强度参数（即火线强度和反应强度）和其他三个关键参数（即火焰长度，扩散率和森林火灾的到达时间）对核电厂的影响。为了确定强度和其他关键参数的可变范围，对各种天气条件进行了敏感性分析。研究地点选自日本NPP周围具有典型地形和植被的地区。核电厂正对着大海，周围是群山，与市区相距甚远，大部分是阔叶林，几个稻田和一些牧场。在此分析中使用了低频到高频天气条件;森林火灾的传播模拟是在“有/没有盛行风”（即0-24m / s风速）和“环境温度和相对湿度的高/低值”（分别为？4.3至37°C和5-99％）下进行的），以典型NPP站点的记录数据范围为准。火线强度和传播速度的最大值分别为4.7×10 2 kW / m和2.4m / min，它们很大程度上取决于主要的风速和相对湿度（分别约为2.3和1.8倍），而与环境温度的相关性则较小（大约1.1倍）。即使对于天气参数的所有变化，反应强度和火焰长度也会在相对较窄的范围内变化（分别约为1.7和1.5倍）。随着主要风速从记录的最高值更改为零，到达现场的森林火灾时间减少了5倍。与最高记录的最低条件相比，最高湿度的到达时间增加了约3.4倍，尽管即使改变环境温度也很少改变。鉴于这项研究表明，顶篷顶部火焰的最大高度接近电源线高度范围，因此，在森林大火期间，可能会发生非现场停电事件。

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