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首页> 外文期刊>Climate research >Linking global circulation model outputs to regional geomorphic models: a case study of landslide activity in New Zealand
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Linking global circulation model outputs to regional geomorphic models: a case study of landslide activity in New Zealand

机译：将全球环流模型输出与区域地貌模型联系起来：以新西兰的滑坡活动为例

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ABSTRACT: General circulation models (GCMs) were constructed for future projections of circulation patterns on a global scale. IPCC emission scenarios, adopted by GCMs, suggest that climate change is due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Application of GCMs to regional-scale studies is difficult due to the different spatial resolutions. Downscaling techniques transfer GCM results to larger scales. Rainfall-triggered landslides are a worldwide phenomenon and can cause socio-economic problems. Regional models of these geomorphic processes were linked to regionalized GCM outputs for New Zealand. Climate-model outputs from HadCM2SUL were used to produce precipitation and temperature scenarios via analog downscaling. Climate-impact studies have rarely been developed for New Zealand. For both Wellington and Hawke1s Bay, climate-change scenarios were applied to 3 deterministic landslide models (the daily rainfall model, the antecedent daily rainfall model and the antecedent soil water status model). All of them relate landslide occurrence to climate conditions. Results give a more reliable projected probability change of landslide occurrence for Wellington than for Hawke1s Bay. Wellington1s cold-season precipitation is mostly associated with synoptic weather systems depending on large-scale circulation features, captured using the downscaling procedure. In contrast, Hawke1s Bay receives its peak precipitation from frequent high-magnitude storms. Common to all 3 applied landslide models for both regions is the trend of decreased landslide activity for the target period, 2070-2099.
机译：摘要：构建了通用流通模型（GCM），用于未来全球范围内的流通模式预测。 GCM采用的IPCC排放情景表明，气候变化是由于人为排放的温室气体造成的。由于不同的空间分辨率，将GCM应用于区域尺度研究是困难的。降级技术将GCM结果转移到更大的规模。降雨引发的滑坡是一种世界性现象，可能引起社会经济问题。这些地貌过程的区域模型与新西兰的区域GCM输出相关联。 HadCM2SUL的气候模型输出用于通过模拟降尺度产生降水和温度情景。新西兰很少进行气候影响研究。对于惠灵顿湾和霍克斯湾，都将气候变化方案应用于3个确定性滑坡模型（日降雨模型，前日降雨模型和前土壤水状况模型）。所有这些都将滑坡的发生与气候条件联系起来。结果提供了比Hawke1s湾更可靠的滑坡发生概率预测概率变化。惠灵顿的冷季降水主要与天气天气系统有关，这取决于天气尺度的大尺度环流特征，这些尺度是通过缩小尺度过程获得的。相比之下，霍克斯湾则因频繁发生的高强度风暴而达到峰值降雨。这两个地区的所有三个应用滑坡模型的共同点是，在目标时期（2070-2099年）滑坡活动减少的趋势。

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