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首页> 外文期刊>Communications of the Association for Information Systems >Disintermediation and Reintermediation in the U.S. Air Travel Distribution Industry: A Delphi Reprise
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Disintermediation and Reintermediation in the U.S. Air Travel Distribution Industry: A Delphi Reprise

机译：美国航空旅行分销行业中的去中介化和再中介化：Delphi Reprise

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摘要

A group of industry experts was assembled as a Delphi panel in 1997-1998. They were asked to predict the effect that Electronic Commerce technologies and disintermediation and reintermediation would exert on the major firms in the U.S. air travel distribution industry in each of five major market segments. The panel forecast that major disintermediation and reintermediation would occur and that there would be a sharp reduction in the number of traditional travel agents five and ten years in the future. The panel also identified a number of strategic threats and opportunities for the channel participants. This paper compares the panel's predictions to what actually occurred and describes technology-related developments that the panel did not foresee. In particular, the panel predicted a major reduction in the number of travel agent entities between 1997 and 2002, as well as in 2007. By the end of 2002, the panel's forecast was very close to what actually occurred. Our overall conclusion is that the Delphi method worked well as a predictor in this instance.
机译：1997年至1998年，一组行业专家作为Delphi小组进行了集会。他们被要求预测电子商务技术以及去中介化和再中介化将对五个主要市场领域的每个美国航空旅行分销行业的主要公司产生的影响。专家组预测，将发生重大的中间中介和再中介，并且未来五年和十年内，传统旅行社的数量将急剧减少。小组还为渠道参与者确定了许多战略威胁和机遇。本文将专家组的预测与实际发生的情况进行了比较，并描述了专家组未预见到的与技术相关的发展。特别是，小组预测1997年至2002年以及2007年之间旅行社实体的数量将大大减少。到2002年底，小组的预测已经非常接近实际情况。我们的总体结论是，在这种情况下，Delphi方法可以很好地用作预测变量。

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