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Managing Uncertainty in Organic Development Projects

机译：管理有机开发项目中的不确定性

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A variety of organic models for systems development have been recommended for more than three decades. These models rest on the assumption that the uncertainty is high and additional team capabilities have to be developed during the project life-cycle. In contrast to the single-pass and document-driven waterfall model, organic models impose less rigid structure on the process, and they are geared toward exploration. We know little, however, about how uncertainties are managed over the life-cycle of organic systems development projects.In response to this challenge, we adapt task uncertainty theory to conduct a qualitative study of management practices in a project based on two-phase funding, staged delivery, and a combination of prototyping and specifications. We provide detailed narratives of how uncertainties emerged, interacted, and were addressed in the project. The subsequent analyses suggest that the adopted organic model facilitated management of uncertainty, but it also introduced surprising and demanding management challenges that were not accounted for in the model.The study adds to our understanding of management practices in organic systems development. It shows how combinations of offensive and defensive responses can help managers address the uncertainties they face. In addition, managers are advised to differentiate between developing know-what and know-how capabilities and to dynamically adapt their uncertainty response mode to fit a project’s evolving context.
机译：已经推荐了超过三十年的各种用于系统开发的有机模型。这些模型基于以下假设：不确定性很高，并且必须在项目生命周期中开发其他团队能力。与单遍和文档驱动的瀑布模型相反，有机模型在过程中施加了较少的刚性结构，并且适合于探索。但是，我们对有机系统开发项目的整个生命周期中如何管理不确定性知之甚少。针对这一挑战，我们采用任务不确定性理论对基于两阶段资金的项目中的管理实践进行了定性研究，分阶段交付以及原型和规格的组合。我们提供了有关不确定性如何在项目中出现，相互作用以及如何解决的详细叙述。随后的分析表明，采用的有机模型有助于不确定性的管理，但同时也引入了模型中未解决的令人惊讶且苛刻的管理挑战。该研究增加了我们对有机系统开发中的管理实践的理解。它显示了进攻性和防御性反应的组合如何能够帮助经理解决他们面临的不确定性。此外，建议经理们在开发知识能力和专有技术能力之间进行区分，并动态调整其不确定性响应模式以适应项目不断变化的环境。

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