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首页> 外文期刊>Comparative Economic Research >Personal Finances vs. the Overall Economic Conditions: What Drives the New EU Member States’ Stock Markets?
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Personal Finances vs. the Overall Economic Conditions: What Drives the New EU Member States’ Stock Markets?

机译：个人理财与总体经济状况：什么驱动新欧盟成员国的股市？

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This paper analyses the leading characteristics of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) with respect to stock market returns for 11 New EU Member States. It proposes novel CCI weights by minimizing mean squared errors from regression forecasting equations, using CCI lags as regressors. With regards to the obtained “optimal” weights, the examined countries are grouped into micro? and macro?oriented clusters. A strong shift is found in the weights due to the recent recession. The micro aspects (reflecting the wealth effect) severely lose their importance in the crisis, while the consumers’ macroeconomic sentiments grow in significance and constitute a separate transmission channel.
机译：本文分析了11个新欧盟成员国的消费者信心指数（CCI）在股市收益方面的主要特征。它通过使用CCI滞后作为回归变量，通过最小化回归预测方程的均方误差来提出新颖的CCI权重。关于获得的“最佳”权重，被检查的国家分为微观？和面向宏的集群。由于最近的衰退，权重发生了很大的变化。微观方面（反映了财富效应）在危机中严重丧失了重要性，而消费者的宏观经济情绪却越来越重要，并构成了单独的传播渠道。

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