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首页> 外文期刊>Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology >Effects of Climate Change on AgroclimaticSuitability of Areas for Selected Cereal CropsProduction over Gamo Gofa Zone, Ethiopia
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Effects of Climate Change on AgroclimaticSuitability of Areas for Selected Cereal CropsProduction over Gamo Gofa Zone, Ethiopia

机译：气候变化对埃塞俄比亚加莫戈法地区部分谷物作物生产地区农业气候适宜性的影响

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This study assessed effects of climate change on agroclimatic suitability of areas for Maize, Wheat and Barley production in Gamo Gofa zone, Southern Ethiopia between September 2014 and February 2015. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to analyze the changes in suitability of areas for cereal production due to climate change. The analysis was conducted using data collected from different sources. Climate change scenarios of average monthly rainfall and temperature for the period 2050s (average of 2040-2069) and 2080s (average of 2070-2099) were downloaded for 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) in climate wizard tools. Ensemble mean of B1 and A2 scenarios were calculated using their values of the 16 GCMs. The mean changes of rainfall and temperature were added to the baseline datasets of the period 1961-1990 to produce the future climates. Agroclimatic suitability of areas for major selected cereal crops (Maize, Wheat and Barley) were analyzed using the climate requirements of the crops based on four parameters namely average annual rainfall, mean temperature, altitude and slope both for the baseline and future scenarios. For 2050s and 2080s B1 and A2 emission scenarios, the rainfall and temperature of the zone would increase beyond the thresholds of crops climatic requirements with A2 to be worst scenario. Due to climate change, a maximum of 11%, 25% and 7% reduction of suitable area are expected by 2050s for Maize, Wheat and Barley respectively; by 2080s the reduction would be respectively 23%, 34% and 8.35%, all for A2 emission scenario. Future climates would have significant negative influence on the suitability of areas for cereals production and food security particularly for the study area and generally for Ethiopia that suggests adaptation measures need to be implemented.
机译：这项研究评估了2014年9月至2015年2月之间，气候变化对埃塞俄比亚南部加莫果阿地区玉米，小麦和大麦生产地区农业气候适宜性的影响。使用地理信息系统（GIS）分析了该地区农业适宜性的变化气候变化导致谷物生产。使用从不同来源收集的数据进行分析。在气候向导工具中为16种通用循环模型（GCM）下载了2050s（平均2040-2069年）和2080s（平均2070-2099年）期间月平均降雨量和温度的气候变化方案。使用它们的16个GCM值计算B1和A2情景的整体均值。将降雨和温度的平均变化添加到1961-1990年的基准数据集中，以产生未来的气候。根据作物的气候需求，基于四个参数，即基线和未来情景的年均降雨量，平均温度，海拔和坡度，根据作物的气候需求对主要选定谷物作物（农业）的区域的农业气候适宜性进行了分析。对于2050年代和2080年代的B1和A2排放情景，该区域的降雨和温度将增加，超过农作物气候要求的阈值，而A2则是最差的情景。由于气候变化，到2050年代，玉米，小麦和大麦的适宜面积预计最多分别减少11％，25％和7％;到2080年代，减排量将分别为23％，34％和8.35％，全部用于A2排放情景。未来的气候将对谷物生产和粮食安全地区的适宜性产生严重的负面影响，特别是对研究地区以及整个埃塞俄比亚而言，这表明需要采取适应措施。

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