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Survival Analysis on the Timing of Foreign Banks into China from the Aspect of Traditional Real Option

机译：传统实物期权视角下外资银行进入中国时机的生存分析

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Foreign Banks are becoming more important to China as China’s banking opens more. China needs to know all aspects of foreign bank’s entry, but researches about the timing are few. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis, foreign banks in China have some monopoly power on their customer in the past and in the future. Therefore traditional real option theory can be used to analyze the timing. This article examines the entry timing of all foreign banks into China from 1978 using survival analysis under real option theory. The empirical model certifies that the entry timing is consistent with real option theory, but at the same time, it presents its own characteristics: policy is very important to the timing; although the uncertainty from the market delays the entry timing, but the delay is weakened by the attractive repay; powerful banks may enter earlier, but at the same time, they are not eager to enter because they have more delayability. China’s authority can affect the timing of foreign banks’ expanding in China through its influence on uncertainty, irreversibility, delayability and current cash flow.
机译：随着中国银行业的开放，外资银行对中国变得越来越重要。中国需要了解外资银行进入的各个方面，但有关时机的研究很少。根据理论和实证分析，过去和将来，中国的外资银行都对其客户具有一定的垄断权。因此，传统的实物期权理论可以用来分析时机。本文采用实物期权理论下的生存分析方法，研究了1978年以来所有外资银行进入中国的时机。经验模型证明了进入时机与实物期权理论是一致的，但同时它也表现出自己的特征：政策对时机非常重要;尽管来自市场的不确定性推迟了入场时间，但是这种延误因诱人的回报而被削弱;强大的银行可能会更早进入，但与此同时，它们并不急于进入，因为它们具有更大的可延迟性。中国的权威可以通过影响不确定性，不可逆性，可延误性和当前现金流的方式，影响外资银行在中国扩张的时机。

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