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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Medica Transilvanica >FORECAST OF PHARMACY SALES WITH BROWN’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
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FORECAST OF PHARMACY SALES WITH BROWN’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

机译：布朗指数平滑的药物销售预测

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摘要

The present paper aims at improving the sale of pharmaceutical products, taking into account the fact that Romania is and will continue to be a market of high potential in selling pharmaceutical goods. We have used a mathematical pattern, i.e. Brown’s exponential smoothing method. Brown’s exponential smoothing method consists in correcting predictions proportional to the deviation noted between previous predictions and their accomplishment, each deviation being downward weighted as it departs from the present. The prediction following the reference period is based on the algebraic sum of the previous forecast and a percentage associated with adjustment error. This problem is solved with the help of the WinQSB software; applying the Solve and Analyze function in the menu of the Forecasting application of the WinQSB software leads to acquiring the outcomes of the predictions. The managers of health care institutions should use the new information and communication technologies in order to plan the activities that will contribute in reaching their proposed objectives, based on accurate forecasting patterns.
机译：考虑到罗马尼亚现在并将继续是在销售药品方面具有巨大潜力的市场这一事实，本文件旨在改善药品的销售。我们使用了一种数学模式，即布朗的指数平滑方法。布朗的指数平滑方法是根据与以前的预测及其实现之间所指出的偏差成比例地校正预测，因为每个偏差与当前偏差都将向下加权。参考周期之后的预测基于先前预测的代数和以及与调整误差相关的百分比。借助WinQSB软件可以解决此问题。在WinQSB软件的Forecasting应用程序的菜单中应用Solve and Analyze功能可以获取预测结果。卫生保健机构的管理人员应使用新的信息和通信技术，以便根据准确的预测模式来计划有助于实现其拟议目标的活动。

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