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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Universitatis Danubius. Oeconomica >Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia
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Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

机译：小型开放经济体中的外国冲击，货币政策和宏观经济波动：马来西亚SVAR研究

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摘要

This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply) have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR) identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign variables, domestic output and inflation. The results show the important role of foreign shocks in influencing Malaysian monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. There is a real effect of monetary policy, that is, a positive shock in money supply increases domestic output. In contrast, a positive interest rates shock has a negative effect on domestic output growth and inflation. The effects of money supply and interest rate shocks on the exchange rate and stock prices are also consistent with standard economic theory. In addition, domestic monetary policy is able to mitigate the negative effect of external shocks upon domestic economy.
机译：本文研究了外国冲击对国内宏观经济波动和货币政策的影响，并研究了国内货币政策作为马来西亚稳定政策的有效性。货币政策变量（利率和货币供应量）已通过非递归结构VAR（SVAR）识别方案进行了测量，该方案允许货币当局在观察外国变量的当前值，国内产出之后设置利率和货币供应量。和通货膨胀。结果表明，外国冲击在影响马来西亚货币政策和宏观经济变量方面具有重要作用。货币政策具有真正的效果，即货币供应的积极冲击会增加国内产出。相反，积极的利率冲击对国内生产增长和通货膨胀产生负面影响。货币供应量和利率冲击对汇率和股票价格的影响也符合标准的经济理论。此外，国内货币政策能够减轻外部冲击对国内经济的负面影响。

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