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Impacts of Terrorism in the United Kingdom and Europe on Tourism in the United Kingdom

机译：英国和欧洲的恐怖主义对英国旅游业的影响

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摘要

Terrorist attacks occur more and more frequently. Therefore, people from all over the world pay more and more attention to them. This paper will focus on the relationship between terrorism and tourism in the United Kingdom, especially focusing on the relationship between terrorism in the United Kingdom or in Europe and tourism in the United Kingdom. This paper applies the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to figure out their relationship. The data used in this article are from the website of the United Kingdom’s office for national statistics and the website of the global terrorism database respectively. Firstly, using the ADF test to figure out whether all these three variables, tourists arrivals, terrorist attacks happened in the U.K. and terrorist attacks happened in Europe continent, are stationary. Secondly, use the ARDL model to test whether terrorism in the United Kingdom and Europe respectively has an impact on British tourism. The results show that terrorism in the United Kingdom has a negative impact on British tourism while terrorism in Europe has a positive impact on it. The results are unexpected. Then analyzing the reasons why terrorism in Europe has a positive impact on tourism in the United Kingdom. But whether these reasons are true needs to explore furtherly.
机译：恐怖袭击越来越频繁。因此，来自世界各地的人们越来越关注他们。本文将重点讨论英国的恐怖主义与旅游业之间的关系，尤其是关注英国或欧洲的恐怖主义与英国旅游业之间的关系。本文应用自动回归分布式滞后（ARDL）模型来找出它们之间的关系。本文中使用的数据分别来自英国国家统计局网站和全球恐怖主义数据库网站。首先，使用ADF测试来确定这三个变量，游客人数，英国发生的恐怖袭击和欧洲大陆发生的恐怖袭击是否都是平稳的。其次，使用ARDL模型来检验英国和欧洲的恐怖主义是否分别对英国旅游业产生影响。结果表明，英国的恐怖主义对英国的旅游业具有负面影响，而欧洲的恐怖主义对其产生积极的影响。结果出乎意料。然后分析了欧洲恐怖主义对英国旅游业产生积极影响的原因。但是，这些原因是否成立还需要进一步探索。

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