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Analysis of influencing factors for rear-end collision on the freeway

机译：高速公路追尾事故影响因素分析

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摘要

Rear-end collision accounts for the main type of traffic accidents occurring on the freeway. In order to extract the significant influence factors of rear-end collision on the freeway, this study utilized the data of freeway traffic accidentsbetween 2010 and 2015 in China. First, based on quasi-induced exposure theory, the information of driver, vehicle, androad environment was analyzed. Gender, age, driving age, vehicle safety, load, weather, fatigue, driving speed, road alignment, accident time, and visibility were selected as the important factors that might affect rear-end collision. Second,based on logistic regression model, the influencing factors analysis model of freeway rear-end collision was established.In the regression analysis, the possible important factors selected were taken as the independent variables, and the accident responsibility was taken as the dependent variable. Then, the factors that had significant influence on rear-end collision were selected from candidate independent variables by stepwise regression method. Finally, the specific influence ofdriving age, load, weather, accident time, visibility, fatigue, and driving speed on rear-end collision occurring on the freeway was discussed. The analysis results were explained according to the odds ratio. The research results of this articlecan provide guidance for the prevention of rear-end collision on the freeway and theoretical support for the development of freeway early warning system.
机译：追尾撞车是高速公路上交通事故的主要类型。为了提取高速公路追尾事故的重要影响因素，本研究利用了2010年至2015年中国高速公路交通事故的数据。首先，基于准诱导暴露理论，分析了驾驶员，车辆和道路环境的信息。选择了性别，年龄，驾驶年龄，车辆安全性，负载，天气，疲劳，驾驶速度，道路路线，事故发生时间和可见度作为可能影响追尾事故的重要因素。其次，在逻辑回归模型的基础上，建立了高速公路追尾事故影响因素分析模型。在回归分析中，将可能选择的重要因素作为自变量，以事故责任作为因变量。然后，通过逐步回归方法从候选独立变量中选择对追尾碰撞产生重大影响的因素。最后，讨论了驾驶年龄，负荷，天气，事故时间，能见度，疲劳度和驾驶速度对高速公路上发生的追尾事故的具体影响。根据比值比解释分析结果。本文的研究成果可为预防高速公路追尾事故提供指导，为高速公路预警系统的发展提供理论支持。

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