Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

K.Savvidou; K.Lagouvardos; S.Michaelides; V.Kotroni; P.Constantinides

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Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

机译：塞浦路斯地区BOLAM天气预报模型的验证

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The purpose of this study is the verification of theBOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verificationperiod spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parametersstudied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts arecompared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island,where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the MeteorologicalService of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and atAthalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error,the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on theconstruction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of aprecipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, anexample of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affectingCyprus during winter is presented and discussed.

机译：这项研究的目的是验证塞浦路斯地区的BOLAM天气预报模型。验证期间为2007年1月1日至2007年12月31日，所研究的参数为：温度，风和降水。模型预测与岛上三个地点记录的观测值相比，塞浦路斯的气象部门在这三个地点运行了自动天气观测系统，即拉纳卡和帕福斯机场以及Athalassa。统计分析包括平均误差，平均绝对误差和标准偏差的计算。基于列联表的建立，计算出降水事件的检测概率和虚警率。最后，介绍并讨论了BOLAM预测的一个实例，该案例以冬季影响塞浦路斯的低压为例。

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《Advances in Geosciences》 |2010年第23期|共8页
作者
K.Savvidou; K.Lagouvardos; S.Michaelides; V.Kotroni; P.Constantinides;
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中图分类天文学、地球科学;
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Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

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