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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Geosciences >Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures
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Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures

机译：多模型方法可以改善水文综合预报吗？使用16种水文模型结构对29个法国流域进行研究

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An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on ameteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with ahydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with themeteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, thestructure of the hydrological model is also an important source ofuncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluatingand comparing the performance and the reliability of different types ofhydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS), when ensemble weatherforecasts are combined with a multi-model approach. The study is based on 29catchments in France and 16 lumped hydrological model structures, driven bythe weather forecasts from the European centre for medium-range weatherforecasts (ECMWF). Results show that the ensemble predictions produced by acombination of several hydrological model structures and meteorologicalensembles have higher skill and reliability than ensemble predictions giveneither by one single hydrological model fed by weather ensemble predictionsor by several hydrological models and a deterministic meteorologicalforecast.
机译：基于气象集合预报系统（M-EPS）结合水文模型搜索的可运行水文集合预报系统，以捕获与主题气象预测相关的不确定性，从而更好地预测河流流量。但是，水文模型的结构也是必须考虑的不确定性的重要来源。这项研究旨在评估和比较不同类型的水文预报系统（H-EPS）在综合天气预报与多模型方法相结合时的性能和可靠性。这项研究基于法国的29个集水区和16个集总水文模型结构，并受到欧洲中程天气预报（ECMWF）中心的天气预报的推动。结果表明，由几种水文模型结构和气象集合相结合产生的集合预报具有更高的技巧和可靠性，比由天气集合预报提供的单个水文模型或几种水文模型和确定性气象预报所给出的集合预报具有更高的技巧和可靠性。

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