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首页> 外文期刊>AESTIMATIO: the IEB International Journal of Finance >Implications of public debt on economic growth and development. A European perspective
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Implications of public debt on economic growth and development. A European perspective

机译：公共债务对经济增长和发展的影响。欧洲视角

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This paper takes an ambitious look at long-run economic growth and investigates the relationship between debt, investments and economic development in a European context. The novelty of the approach is that it includes public debt as an independent variable in the augmented Solow model. The analysis is based on fixed effects models on a panel consisting of 12 European countries, observed across more than 30 years (1980-2012). Various estimation and validity issues are raised, including endogeneity and reverse causality. The general findings of this research are that economic growth has a significant negative effect on public debt accumulation. As economic growth slows down it leads to an increase in the budget deficit through reduced public revenue, leading to new debt issuance. The specific analyses for Italy and Portugal show that they have been on an unsustainable path in the last decades, accompanied by huge fiscal deficits, negative net exports, and rising interest rates on their debt.
机译：本文对长期的经济增长进行了雄心勃勃的研究，并研究了欧洲范围内债务，投资与经济发展之间的关系。该方法的新颖之处在于，它在增强的Solow模型中将公共债务作为自变量包括在内。该分析基于固定效应模型，该模型是在12个欧洲国家/地区组成的小组中进行的30多年（1980-2012年）观察。提出了各种估计和有效性问题，包括内生性和反向因果关系。这项研究的总体发现是，经济增长对公共债务积累具有重大的负面影响。随着经济增长放慢，公共收入减少将导致预算赤字增加，从而导致新的债务发行。对意大利和葡萄牙的具体分析表明，在过去的几十年中，它们一直走在不可持续的道路上，伴随着巨额财政赤字，净出口为负以及债务利率上升。

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