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首页> 外文期刊>African Journal of Agricultural Research >Engaging smallholder farmers with seasonal climate forecasts for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe
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Engaging smallholder farmers with seasonal climate forecasts for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe

机译：在津巴布韦半干旱地区，让小农户获得季节性气候预测，以实现可持续的作物生产

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Small holder farmers in the semi-arid areas have not been able to utilize seasonal climate forecasts in making crop management decisions due to limited exposure as well as failure to interpret it. Three participatory meetings were held with farmers in Lower Gweru and Lupane Districts of Zimbabwe soon after the release of the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasonal climate forecast in September of each season. This was done to solicit for farmers’ prediction of the coming rainy season and come up with field test crop management practices. Farmers have their sets of indicators that they rely on to forecast seasonal rainfall which are based on generations of past experience that include environmental, biological, and traditional beliefs. There is however, need to investigate how their indicators compare with the scientific forecast in making farming decisions. Farmers claimed that the rains were starting later and finishing earlier whilst analysis of the rainfall record showed that starting rains have been later by 5 to 10 days in the last five years. There was an increase in the number of dry spells in the rainy season in the last five years compared to the period 1980 to 2008. Adding recommended amounts of fertilizers resulted in yield increases of 40% compared to adding half the recommended amounts. Growing long season varieties resulted in higher yields (22%) than growing short season varieties in the 2009/2010 wetter season while growing of shorter season variety had yield advantage (36%) over the long season variety in the 2009/2010 which was relatively dry. Frequent weeding resulted in about 8% increase in maize yields compared to weeding once in a season. The study demonstrates that knowledge of the coming season assists smallholder farmers in coming up with adaptive strategies for climate variability and change.
机译：半干旱地区的小农户由于接触量有限以及无法解释气候而无法利用季节性气候预测做出作物管理决策。在每个季节的9月发布了2008/2009年和2009/2010年季节性气候预报后不久，在津巴布韦的Lower Gweru和Lupane区与农民举行了三场参与会议。这样做是为了征求农民对即将到来的雨季的预测，并提出了田间试验作物管理方法。农民根据过去的经验积累，包括环境，生物和传统信仰，根据自己的一套指标来预测季节性降雨。但是，在制定农业决策时，需要调查其指标与科学预测的比较。农民声称降雨开始较晚，降雨结束较早，而对降雨记录的分析表明，在过去五年中开始降雨推迟了5至10天。与1980年至2008年相比，过去五年的雨季干旱季节数量有所增加。建议的肥料用量导致产量增加40％，而建议的数量则增加一半。与2009/2010湿季的短季品种相比，长季品种的产量更高（22％），而2009/2010相对于长季品种的短时期品种的增长具有产量优势（36％），相对而言干。与一个季节除草一次相比，频繁除草可使玉米单产提高约8％。该研究表明，对即将到来的季节的了解有助于小农户提出适应性策略，以应对气候变化和变化。

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