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Assessing the potential economic impact of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize in Kenya

机译：评估苏云金芽孢杆菌（Bt）玉米在肯尼亚的潜在经济影响

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The Insect Resistant Maize for Africa (IRMA) project is currently developing Bt maize for Kenya. So far, Bt genes with resistance to?Chilo partellus,?Chilo orichalcociliellus,Eldana sacharina, and?Sesamia calamistis, four of the five major stemborers were successfully incorporated into elite CIMMYT maize inbred line?(CML216)?and tested in insect bioassays in Kenya. Participatory Rural Appraisals showed that stem borers are indeed major pest problems for farmers. Four seasons of on-farm crop loss assessment showed an average crop loss of 13.5%, or 0.4 million tons, valued at US$ 80 million. If the project manages to find a Bt gene that is effective to the fifth stemborer,?Busseola fusca, adoption rates are likely to be high, and therefore the returns. Under standard assumptions, the economic surplus of the project is calculated at $ 208 million over 25 years?(66% of which is consumer surplus)?as compared to a cost of $5.7 million. Geographically, the project should focus on the high production moist-transitional zone. However, if such gene cannot be found, Bt maize technology would only be effective in the low potential areas, and adoption rates would be fairly low, although benefits would still exceed costs.
机译：非洲抗虫玉米（IRMA）项目目前正在为肯尼亚开发Bt玉米。到目前为止，已经对Partialus，Chilo orichalcociliellus，Eldana sacharina和Sesamia calamistis产生抗性的Bt基因成功地整合到了五个重要的CIMMYT玉米自交系（CML216）中，并在昆虫生物测定中进行了测试。肯尼亚。参与式农村评估显示，stem虫确实是农民的主要病虫害问题。四个季节的农场作物损失评估显示，平均作物损失为13.5％，即40万吨，价值8000万美元。如果该项目设法找到对第五个stem虫有效的Bt基因，那么收养率可能很高，因此回报很高。按照标准假设，该项目在25年内的经济盈余估计为2.08亿美元（其中66％为消费者盈余），而成本为570万美元。从地理上讲，该项目应集中在高产潮湿过渡带上。但是，如果找不到这种基因，则Bt玉米技术将仅在低潜力地区有效，采用率将相当低，尽管收益仍将超过成本。

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