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首页> 外文期刊>African Journal of Business Management >Demand elasticities of oil in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia using autoregressive and error correction procedures
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Demand elasticities of oil in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia using autoregressive and error correction procedures

机译：使用自回归和纠错程序在沙特阿拉伯王国的石油需求弹性

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This paper investigates the short-run and the long-run oil demand elasticities in Saudi Arabia for the period 1980-2009, using auto-regressive and co-integration analyses. It finds oil price (the world crude price) insignificant in the short-run and significant in the long-run, and the demand to be price inelastic. The income is significant, and the demand is income inelastic in the short-run and elastic in the long-run. There is a long-run co-movement between the oil consumption and linear summation of the oil price and the income. However, a deviation from this long-run equilibrium takes a long time to correct, as only 0.08% of deviation is corrected annually. The income and the oil consumption have a bi-directional relationship, whereas the domestic oil consumption is found neutral of the world oil price, and the domestic income growth is found to put pressure on the world oil price to rise. The implications of the study are that domestic energy conservation should be cautiously managed as reductions in the domestic oil consumption can have damaging consequences for the economic growth, and the authorities should monitor and evaluate the sustainability of the neutrality of domestic oil consumption market from the world oil market shocks.
机译：本文利用自回归和协整分析方法研究了1980-2009年期间沙特阿拉伯的短期和长期石油需求弹性。它发现油价（世界原油价格）在短期内微不足道，而在长期内则显着，并且需求是价格无弹性的。收入是可观的，需求短期内是无弹性的，长期是弹性的。石油消耗与石油价格和收入的线性求和之间存在长期的共同作用。但是，与这种长期均衡的偏差需要较长的时间来校正，因为每年仅校正0.08％的偏差。收入与石油消费具有双向关系，而发现国内石油消费与世界石油价格无关，发现国内收入增长给世界石油价格上涨带来压力。该研究的意义在于，应谨慎管理国内节能，因为减少国内石油消费可能对经济增长产生破坏性后果，而当局应监测和评估世界范围内国内石油消费市场的中立性可持续性石油市场震荡。

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