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The Relationship between Credit Market Development and Economic Growth | Science Publications

机译:信贷市场发展与经济增长之间的关系科学出版物

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> Problem statement: This study investigated the relationship between credit market development and economic growth for Spain for the period 1976-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Questions were raised whether economic growth spurs credit market development taking into account the negative effect of inflation rate and investments on credit market development. This study aimed to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between bank lending, gross domestic product and inflation rate applying the Johansen cointegration analysis. Approach: To achieve this objective classical and panel unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen cointegration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are cointegrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between economic growth and credit market development. Results: A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of bank lending 0.08%, while an increase of inflation rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of bank lending per 0.56% and also an increase of investments rate per 1% induced an increase of bank credits per 0.18% in Spain. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any a problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. Conclusion: The empirical results indicated that economic growth and investment have a positive effect on credit market development, while inflation rate has a negative effect. Bank development was determined by the size of bank lending directed to private sector at times of low inflation rates leading to higher economic growth rates.
机译: > 问题陈述:本研究使用向量误差校正模型(VECM)研究了1976-2007年西班牙信贷市场发展与经济增长之间的关系。考虑到通货膨胀率和投资对信贷市场发展的负面影响,有人提出了经济增长是否刺激信贷市场发展的问题。这项研究旨在利用Johansen协整分析研究银行贷款,国内生产总值和通货膨胀率之间的短期和长期关系。 方法:为了实现这一目标,对所有时间序列数据的水平和初次差异进行了经典和面板单位根检验。应用Johansen协整分析,以考虑最大特征值和跟踪统计检验,检查变量是否以相同顺序协整。最后,选择了矢量误差校正模型来研究经济增长与信贷市场发展之间的长期关系。 结果:短期内每1%的经济增长导致银行贷款增加0.08%,而通货膨胀率每1%的增加导致银行贷款相对减少0.56%,并且每1%的投资率增加导致西班牙每0.18%的银行信贷增加。误差校正项的估计系数在统计上是显着的,并且具有负号,这确认了所检查的变量之间的长期均衡没有任何问题。 结论:实证结果表明,经济增长和投资对信贷市场发展具有积极影响,而通货膨胀率则具有负面影响。银行的发展取决于在低通货膨胀率导致较高的经济增长率时针对私人部门的银行贷款规模。

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