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Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon

机译：气候变化对亚马逊西南部普鲁斯盆地水资源的影响评估

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Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the A1B-AR4/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated by the ETA-INPE/HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a temperature increase of up to 4.4 ?°C, and a wind speed increase of up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The consequences of projected climate change are severe and will probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may have great importance in water retention.
机译：面对长期变化和更频繁的极端事件发生，有关水资源的知识对于气候适应至关重要。在2005年和2010年的大旱期间，大震中位于普鲁斯河流域上方的亚马逊西南地区。从这个意义上讲，我们在该流域进行了水文模拟，以评估整个21世纪气候变化对其水资源的影响。使用分布式水文模型（MHD-INPE）模拟了水平衡。未来的气候预测是由区域ETA-INPE模型模拟的，该模型由4个成员的HadCM3全球模型驱动，涉及温室气体排放的A1B-AR4 / IPCC情景。如ETA-INPE / HadCM3所模拟，A1B情景的4个成员平均响应表示降雨量减少了11.1％，温度增加了4.4°C，风速增加了8.4到21世纪末在Purus盆地中所占的百分比。在这些条件下，在干湿季与湿季之间模式不同的情况下，普鲁斯盆地的排放量预计将总体减少27％，并且季节性趋势也将发生变化。预计的气候变化将带来严重的后果，并可能对自然生态系统的维护和人类生存产生重大影响。在适应气候变化的过程中，Purus盆地天然林覆盖的保护在保水方面可能非常重要。

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