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Pandemics, public health emergencies and antimicrobial resistance - putting the threat in an epidemiologic and risk analysis context

机译:大流行,突发公共卫生事件和抗菌素耐药性-将威胁置于流行病学和风险分析的背景下

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Public health messaging about antimicrobial resistance (AMR) sometimes conveys the problem as an epidemic. We outline why AMR is a serious endemic problem manifested in hospital and community-acquired infections. AMR is not an epidemic condition, but may complicate epidemics, which are characterised by sudden societal impact due to rapid rise in cases over a short timescale. Influenza, which causes direct viral effects, or secondary bacterial complications is the most likely cause of an epidemic or pandemic where AMR may be a problem. We discuss other possible causes of a pandemic with AMR, and present a risk assessment formula to estimate the impact of AMR during a pandemic. Finally, we flag the potential impact of genetic engineering of pathogens on global risk and how this could radically change the epidemiology of AMR as we know it. Understanding the epidemiology of AMR is key to successfully addressing the problem. AMR is an endemic condition but can play a role in epidemics or pandemics, and we present a risk analysis method for assessing the impact of AMR in a pandemic.
机译:有关抗菌素耐药性(AMR)的公共卫生信息有时会以流行病的形式传达此问题。我们概述了为什么AMR是一个严重的地方病,表现在医院和社区获得性感染中。 AMR不是流行病,但可能会使流行病复杂化,其特征是由于在短时间内病例的快速上升而导致突然的社会影响。引起直接病毒效应或继发性细菌并发症的流感是最有可能引起AMR流行的流行病或大流行病。我们讨论了AMR大流行的其他可能原因,并提出了风险评估公式来估计AMR在大流行期间的影响。最后,我们指出了病原体基因工程对全球风险的潜在影响,以及如我们所知,这将如何从根本上改变AMR的流行病学。了解AMR的流行病学是成功解决该问题的关键。 AMR是一种流行病,但可以在流行病或大流行中发挥作用,因此,我们提出了一种风险分析方法,用于评估AMR在大流行中的影响。

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