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Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters

机译：亚洲人口稠密的增长：对初级产品出口商的影响

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AbstractEconomic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.
机译：摘要亚洲的经济增长和一体化正在迅速提高该地区的全球经济重要性。在某种程度上，这种增长将持续下去，并且在自然资源匮乏的亚洲经济体中最为强劲，它将增加全球对初级产品进口的需求，从而使（尤其是附近的）资源丰富的国家受益。在这样的经济发展和结构变化过程中，到2030年全球生产，消费和贸易方式将如何变化？我们使用GTAP模型和2007 GTAP数据库的8.1版以及来自各种来源的补充数据来解决此问题，以支持在各种情况下对2007年至2030年全球经济的预测。假定要素end赋和实际国内生产总值以外生速度增长，与贸易有关的政策保持不变以产生核心基线，并将其与另一种较慢的增长情景进行比较。我们还考虑了旨在提高中国相对于2030年农业自给自足的几项政策变化的影响。最后一部分列出了对亚太地区国家的政策影响。

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