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An Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Banks Profitability in Malaysia for the Period 1995-2011

机译:1995-2011年间马来西亚商业银行盈利能力的宏观经济决定因素分析

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This paper investigates the macroeconomics factors that stimulate banks’ profitability. A standard regression model is used to identify macroeconomics determinants that significantly contribute to profitability, expressed through return on assets (ROA), of commercial banks in Malaysia. The determinant factors under consideration are real gross domestic product growth, inflation (expressed through consumer price index), and real interest rates. The paper incorporates seven banks, namely, CIMB, Public Bank, Maybank, Affin Bank, RHB Bank, Alliance Bank and Hong Leong Bank for the period 1995 to 2011. In order to present research in most accurate way, the paper looked into the relationship between profitability of all banks (expressed through mean of ROAs), as well as every single individual bank, with mentioned macroeconomic determinants. Model demonstrated overall significance for mean of all banks, and three individual banks, namely, Maybank, Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank. Findings show that for mean of all banks, as well as Maybank, Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank, real GDP is significant and have positive relationship with confidence level of 1% and 5%. This paper illustrated that in Malaysian case, inflation (CPI) is not significant for mean of all banks and Maybank. On the contrary, for Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank inflation (CPI) is significant, with negative relationship. Lastly, the outcomes of this paper exemplified that in Malaysia real interest rate has no relation with banks’ profitability. From the empirical estimation, it is suggested that for the banks’ profitability the growth of gross domestic product must be in place in order to stimulate lending and borrowing activities. In addition, it is proposed that for the banking sector in order to preserve on profitability, the anticipation of inflation must be in place to shelter revenue and reduce cost of the banks.
机译:本文研究了刺激银行盈利的宏观经济因素。标准回归模型用于确定对通过马来西亚的商业银行的资产回报率(ROA)表示的盈利能力有重大贡献的宏观经济学决定因素。正在考虑的决定性因素是实际国内生产总值增长,通货膨胀(通过消费物价指数表示)和实际利率。本文纳入了1995年至2011年间的7家银行,即联昌国际银行,大众银行,马来亚银行,艾芬银行,RHB银行,联盟银行和丰隆银行。为了以最准确的方式介绍研究,本文探讨了这种关系。在所有银行(通过投资回报率的均值表示)以及每家单个银行的利润之间,并提到了宏观经济决定因素。该模型显示了所有银行和三家独立银行(马来亚银行,大众银行和丰隆银行)的均值的总体意义。研究结果表明,对于所有银行以及马来亚银行,大众银行和丰隆银行的均值而言,实际GDP都很高,并且与1%和5%的置信度具有正相关关系。本文说明,在马来西亚的情况下,通货膨胀率(CPI)对于所有银行和马来亚银行的均值并不重要。相反,对于大众银行和丰隆银行来说,通货膨胀(CPI)是显着的,具有负相关关系。最后,本文的结果表明,在马来西亚,实际利率与银行的盈利能力无关。根据经验估计,建议为提高银行的盈利能力,必须实现国内生产总值的增长,以刺激借贷活动。此外,建议对于银行部门来说,为了保持盈利能力,必须对通货膨胀做出预期,以掩盖收入并降低银行成本。

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