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The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the Philippines: An Empirical Note (2001-2017)

机译:菲律宾期限结构的预期假说:经验注释(2001-2017年)

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This paper provides a first assessment about the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS) in the Philippines. In line with the EHTS, there is strong support for cointegration between interest rates at different maturities, while no significant risk premium components are detected. However, the ?symmetry? restriction, assuming equi-proportional yields movements, is strongly rejected. Finally, there is strong evidence of unidirectional causality from short to long-term interest rates. The main policy implications are that: (a) monetary policy should be mainly focused on the management of longer term maturities; (b) monetary policy should rely on interest rates smoothing, in order to prevent potentially destabilizing effects.
机译:本文提供了有关菲律宾期限结构的预期假设(EHTS)的初步评估。与EHTS一致,强烈支持不同期限的利率之间的协整,而没有发现重大的风险溢价成分。但是,“对称性”是什么?假设收益率等比例变动,则限制被强烈拒绝。最后,有强有力的证据表明,从短期利率到长期利率都存在单向因果关系。主要的政策含义是:(a)货币政策应主要侧重于长期到期日的管理; (b)货币政策应依赖于利率的平滑化,以防止潜在的破坏稳定作用。

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