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The Impact of Aid and Macroeconomic Policy on Growth in Nigeria: A Bounds Testing Approach Author(s):

机译：援助和宏观经济政策对尼日利亚增长的影响：一种界线测试方法

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This paper explores the impact of aid and macroeconomic policy on growth with Nigeria as a case study. Given its limited use in the aid efficiency literature on Nigeria, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied in this study for time series data covering 44 years (1970-2014) in an attempt to expand the use of this approach and to check if a similar (negative) relationship is found between aid and growth. The results showed a positive correlation i.e. aid supports growth in Nigeria in the long-term. The other variables identified above and trends such as labour force and technological change were also found to be positive towards economic growth in the long-term, though governance showed an insignificant relationship. In the short-term, investment and policy were found to have a negative correlation on growth. More data on governance (before 1996) could be applied to expand the findings of this study and other measures of macroeconomic policy could be used to test if a similar result is obtained as principal component analysis was applied in this case. Given our findings, this paper recommends that the government of Nigeria should prioritize aid since it has been empirically found to support growth.
机译：本文以尼日利亚为例，探讨了援助和宏观经济政策对增长的影响。鉴于其在尼日利亚的援助效率文献中使用有限，本研究将自回归分布式滞后（ARDL）模型用于涵盖44年（1970-2014）的时间序列数据，以试图扩大这种方法的使用并检查如果在援助与增长之间发现相似（负）关系。结果显示出正相关关系，即援助从长远来看支持尼日利亚的增长。从长远来看，尽管治理显示出微不足道的关系，但上述其他变量以及诸如劳动力和技术变革等趋势也对经济增长具有积极作用。在短期内，投资和政策与增长之间存在负相关关系。可以将更多的治理数据（在1996年之前）用于扩展本研究的结果，并且可以使用宏观经济政策的其他措施来检验在这种情况下采用主成分分析是否获得了相似的结果。鉴于我们的发现，本文建议尼日利亚政府应优先考虑援助，因为从经验来看，它可以支持增长。

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