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Feasibility of Flexible Term Concessions based Real Options in Indian Highway Sector

机译：在印度公路行业中，基于灵活期限优惠的实物期权的可行性

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Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are considered as effective tools for transferring risks and responsibilities to the private sector for infrastructure creation, particularly in road transport sector. The uncertainty in demand forecasts makes choice of PPP model susceptible to errors, resulting in non-performing projects and demands for renegotiations. Multiple non-performing projects have resulted in falling competitiveness in Indian Highway sector and government absorbing most risks to attract investors. This article explores the feasibility of offering Flexible Term Concessions (FTC) as a real option over two ongoing Built Operate Transfer (BOT) highway projects in India. The forecast made from actual data using Geometric Brownian Motion and the risk neutral valuation through spreadsheet analysis indicated positive values and risk reduction with the flexibility. Subsequent interviews with key stakeholders in the sector presented some of the barriers to implement flexibilities in Indian PPPs.
机译：公私伙伴关系（PPP）被认为是将风险和责任转移给私营部门以建立基础设施的有效工具，特别是在公路运输部门。需求预测的不确定性使PPP模式的选择容易出错，从而导致项目表现不佳以及重新谈判的需求。多个不良项目导致印度公路行业竞争力下降，政府吸收了大部分风险来吸引投资者。本文探讨了在印度两个正在进行的建筑运营转移（BOT）高速公路项目中，提供灵活期限优惠（FTC）作为实际选择的可行性。使用Geometric Brownian Motion从实际数据进行的预测以及通过电子表格分析得出的风险中性评估显示出正值，并且具有灵活性，降低了风险。随后对该行业主要利益相关者的采访提出了在印度PPP中实施灵活性的一些障碍。

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