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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric chemistry and physics >Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling
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Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

机译：通过大气观测和逆模型验证瑞士甲烷排放量清单

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Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a?regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CHsub4/sub) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a?high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CHsub4/sub emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yrsup?1/sup for the year 2013 (1iσ/i uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yrsup?1/sup as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CHsub4/sub source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CHsub4/sub emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a?minor source of CHsub4/sub in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yrsup?1/sup reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yrsup?1/sup implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CHsub4/sub emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.
机译：大气逆向模型有可能提供基于观测值的国家范围内温室气体排放估算，从而可以对国家排放清单进行独立验证。在这里，我们利用新建立的CarboCount-CH测量网络和高分辨率拉格朗日法，进行了一项区域规模逆模型研究，以量化瑞士甲烷的排放量（CH 4 ）运输模型。在我们的参考反演中，先前的排放量取材于2014年由瑞士联邦环境办公室发布的“自下而上”的瑞士温室气体清单（SGHGI）。总体而言，我们估算的国家CH 4 < / sub的排放量在2013年为196±18 Gg yr ？1 （1 σ不确定性）。该结果与最近修订的SGHGI估计值（2012年报告的2015年报告的206±33 Gg yr ？1 ）非常吻合。使用替代先发排放的灵敏度反演，不确定性协方差设置，大尺度背景摩尔分数，两种不同的逆算法（贝叶斯算法和扩展卡尔曼滤波器）以及两种不同的传输模型证实了我们估算的鲁棒性和独立性。根据SGHGI的最新估计，瑞士的主要CH 4 来源类别为农业（78％），废物处理（15％）和天然气分配与燃烧（6％）。我们后部排放的空间分布和季节变化表明，在最新的SGHGI中，农业CH 4 排放被高估了10％到20％，这可能是由于对粪便处理排放的高估了。在我们的后验结果中，市区并没有显示为排放热点，这表明天然气分布泄漏只是瑞士CH 4 的次要来源。这与SGHGI报告的8.4 Gg yr ？1 的较低排放量相符，但与EDGARv4.2暗示的更高的32 Gg yr ？1 值不一致。该部门的库存。推算出瑞士东北部CH 4 排放增加（比以前增加了30％）。大多数敏感度反演都具有此功能，这是一个有力的指标，表明它是真实特征，而不是传输模型和反演系统的伪像。但是，不可能为该区域分配明确的源进程。 CarboCount-CH网络的观测结果为验证国家自下而上的清单提供了宝贵的独立信息。需要维持类似的系统，以提供对未来气候协议的独立监测。

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