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Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

机译:多个再分析数据集中对主要火山爆发的全球温度响应

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The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to ?1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, as well as to link studies using only a single reanalysis data set to other studies using a different reanalysis data set.
机译:使用目前可用的九种再分析数据集(JRA-55,MERRA,ERA-Interim,NCEP-CFSR,JRA-25)调查了1963年阿贡山,1982年埃尔奇琴和1991年皮纳图博火山喷发的全球温度响应,ERA-40,NCEP-1,NCEP-2和20CR)。通过考虑季节性谐波的解释因素,将线性回归应用于1979-2009年(针对八个再分析数据集)和1958-2001年(针对四个再分析数据集)两个时期的温度区域和月平均时间序列,趋势,准双年度涛动,太阳周期和厄尔尼诺南方涛动。残差用于分别定义三个喷发的火山信号,并且针对每个喷发突出显示了旧的和较新的再分析数据集之间的共同和不同的响应。针对皮纳图博火山喷发,大多数再分析数据集显示,在热带低平流层中,强烈的变暖信号(平均1年平均高达2-3 K)和在亚热带对流层中的较弱的冷却信号(低至1 K) 。对于ElChichón喷发,热带低平流层的变暖信号要比Pinatubo山喷发的稍小。在南半球中纬度上对流层到平流层下层,对阿贡火山喷发的响应在赤道附近具有强烈的变暖现象。来自几个不同的再分析数据集的结果比较证实了大气温度对这些主要喷发的定性反应,但即使在最新的再分析数据集之间也显示出数量差异。不同的再分析数据集之间的一致性和差异为我们对火山反应的当前理解提供了一种置信度和不确定性的度量。这项比较研究的结果可能对验证气候模型对火山强迫的反应以及通过平流层气溶胶注入评估拟议的地球工程学以及将仅使用单个再分析数据集的研究与使用不同再分析数据集的其他研究联系起来有用。 。

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