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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric chemistry and physics >Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric COsub2/sub to global surface temperature and the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis
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Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric COsub2/sub to global surface temperature and the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis

机译：从大气CO 2 水平变化到全球表面温度和厄尔尼诺-南涛动的格兰杰因果关系，以及全球光合作用的候选机制

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A significant difference, now of some 16 years' duration, has been shown toexist between the observed global surface temperature trend and that expectedfrom the majority of climate simulations. For its own sake, and to enablebetter climate prediction for policy use, the reasons behind this mismatchneed to be better understood. While an increasing number of possible causeshave been proposed, the candidate causes have not yet converged.With this background, this paper reinvestigates the relationship betweenchange in the level of CO2 and two of the major climate variables,atmospheric temperature and the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Using time-series analysis in the form of dynamic regression modelling withautocorrelation correction, it is shown that first-difference CO2 leadstemperature and that there is a highly statistically significant correlationbetween first-difference CO2 and temperature. Further, a correlation isfound for second-difference CO2 with the Southern Oscillation Index, theatmospheric-pressure component of ENSO. This paper also shows that both thesecorrelations display Granger causality.It is shown that the first-difference CO2 and temperature model shows notrend mismatch in recent years.These results may contribute to the prediction of future trends for globaltemperature and ENSO.Interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 isstandardly attributed to variability in the carbon sink capacity of theterrestrial biosphere. The terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is created bythe difference between photosynthesis and respiration (net primaryproductivity): a major way of measuring global terrestrial photosynthesis isby means of satellite measurements of vegetation reflectance, such as theNormalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In a preliminary analysis,this study finds a close correlation between an increasing NDVI and theincreasing climate model/temperature mismatch (as quantified by thedifference between the trend in the level of CO2 and the trend intemperature).
机译：已显示，观测到的全球表面温度趋势与大多数气候模拟所预期的趋势之间存在显着差异，目前已有约16年的时间。出于自身的原因，以及为了更好地进行气候预测以用于政策使用，需要更好地理解这种不匹配的原因。尽管提出了越来越多的可能原因，但候选原因尚未收敛。 在此背景下，本文重新研究了CO 2 的水平变化与两个CO 2 水平之间的关系。主要的气候变量，大气温度和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）。 利用具有自相关校正的动态回归模型形式的时间序列分析，表明一阶差CO < sub> 2 导致温度升高，并且一阶差CO 2 与温度之间存在极显着的统计相关性。此外，还发现二阶差CO 2 与ENSO大气压成分的南方涛动指数相关。本文还表明，这两个相关性都显示出格兰杰因果关系。 表明，近年来，一阶差分CO 2 和温度模型显示出不匹配的不匹配性。这些结果可能有助于预测全球温度和ENSO的未来趋势。 大气中CO 2 增长率的年际变化通常归因于陆地生物圈碳汇能力的变化。 。陆地生物圈碳汇是由光合作用和呼吸作用（净初级生产力）之间的差异产生的：测量全球陆地光合作用的一种主要方法是通过对植被反射率的卫星测量，例如归一化植被指数（NDVI）。在初步分析中，本研究发现NDVI的增加与气候模型/温度失配的增加之间存在密切的相关性（由CO 2 的水平趋势与温度趋势之间的差异量化）。

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