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An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation

机译：用于区域尺度逆排放估算的扩展卡尔曼滤波器

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A Kalman-filter based inverse emission estimation method for long-lived tracegases is presented for use in conjunction with a Lagrangian particledispersion model like FLEXPART. The sequential nature of the approach allowstracing slow seasonal and interannual changes rather than estimating a singleperiod-mean emission field. Other important features include the estimationof a slowly varying concentration background at each measurement station, thepossibility to constrain the solution to non-negative emissions, thequantification of uncertainties, the consideration of temporal correlationsin the residuals, and the applicability to potentially large inversionproblems. The method is first demonstrated for a set of syntheticobservations created from a prescribed emission field with different levelsof (correlated) noise, which closely mimics true observations. It is thenapplied to real observations of the three halocarbons HFC-125, HFC-152a andHCFC-141b at the remote research stations Jungfraujoch and Mace Head for thequantification of emissions in Western European countries from 2006 to 2010.Estimated HFC-125 emissions are mostly consistent with national totalsreported to UNFCCC in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol and show agenerally increasing trend over the considered period. Results for HFC-152aare much more variable with estimated emissions being both higher and lowerthan reported emissions in different countries. The highest emissions of theorder of 700–800 Mg yr?1 are estimated for Italy, which so far doesnot report HFC-152a emissions. Emissions of HCFC-141b show a continuingstrong decrease as expected due to its controls in developed countries underthe Montreal Protocol. Emissions from France, however, were still ratherlarge, in the range of 700–1000 Mg yr?1 in the years 2006 and 2007but strongly declined thereafter.
机译：提出了一种基于卡尔曼滤波的长寿命痕量气体逆排放估算方法，以与拉格朗日粒子弥散模型（如FLEXPART）结合使用。该方法的顺序性质允许跟踪缓慢的季节和年际变化，而不是估计单个周期平均排放场。其他重要特征包括估算每个测量站的浓度背景缓慢变化，是否可以将解决方案限制为非负排放，不确定性的量化，残差中时间相关性的考虑以及潜在的大反演问题的适用性。该方法首先针对从具有不同（相关）噪声水平的规定发射场创建的一组合成观测进行了演示，该观测密切模拟了真实的观测结果。然后将其应用于远程研究站Jungfraujoch和Mace Head的三种卤代烃HFC-125，HFC-152a和HCFC-141b的真实观测，以量化2006年至2010年西欧国家的排放量。估算的HFC-125排放量基本保持一致在《京都议定书》的框架内向联合国气候变化框架公约报告的国家总数有所增加，并且在所考虑的时期内呈逐年上升的趋势。 HFC-152a的结果变化很大，估计的排放量高于和低于不同国家/地区报告的排放量。据估计，意大利的最高排放量约为700–800 Mg yr ？1 ，迄今为止，该国尚未报告HFC-152a的排放量。 HCFC-141b的排放量显示出持续强劲的下降，这是由于其根据《蒙特利尔议定书》在发达国家进行的控制所致。但是，法国的排放量仍然相当大，在2006年和2007年间在700-1000 Mg yr ？1 范围内，但此后急剧下降。

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