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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric chemistry and physics >Bayesian inverse modeling and source location of an unintended sup131/supI release in Europe in the fall of 2011
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Bayesian inverse modeling and source location of an unintended sup131/supI release in Europe in the fall of 2011

机译：2011年秋季在欧洲发布的意外 131 I的贝叶斯逆建模和源位置

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In the fall of 2011, iodine-131 (sup131/supI) was detected at several radionuclide monitoring stations in central Europe. After investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed by Hungarian authorities that sup131/supI was released from the Institute of Isotopes Ltd. in Budapest, Hungary. It was reported that a total activity of 342?GBq of sup131/supI was emitted between 8?September and 16?November?2011. In this study, we use the ambient concentration measurements of sup131/supI to determine the location of the release as well as its magnitude and temporal variation. As the location of the release and an estimate of the source strength became eventually known, this accident represents a realistic test case for inversion models. For our source reconstruction, we use no prior knowledge. Instead, we estimate the source location and emission variation using only the available sup131/supI measurements. Subsequently, we use the partial information about the source term available from the Hungarian authorities for validation of our results. For the source determination, we first perform backward runs of atmospheric transport models and obtain source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrices for each grid cell of our study domain. We use two dispersion models, FLEXPART and Hysplit, driven with meteorological analysis data from the global forecast system (GFS) and from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather forecast models. Second, we use a recently developed inverse method, least-squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC), to determine the sup131/supI emissions and their temporal variation from the measurements and computed SRS matrices. For each grid cell of our simulation domain, we evaluate the probability that the release was generated in that cell using Bayesian model selection. The model selection procedure also provides information about the most suitable dispersion model for the source term reconstruction. Third, we select the most probable location of the release with its associated source term and perform a forward model simulation to study the consequences of the iodine release. Results of these procedures are compared with the known release location and reported information about its time variation. We find that our algorithm could successfully locate the actual release site. The estimated release period is also in agreement with the values reported by IAEA and the reported total released activity of 342?GBq is within the 99?% confidence interval of the posterior distribution of our most likely model.
机译：2011年秋天，在中欧的几个放射性核素监测站发现了碘131（ 131 I）。经过调查，匈牙利当局告知国际原子能机构（IAEA）， 131 I已从匈牙利布达佩斯的同位素研究所释放。据报道，在2011年9月8日至11月16日之间，总共排放了342？GBq的 131 I。在这项研究中，我们使用 131 I的环境浓度测量值来确定释放的位置以及释放的幅度和时间变化。随着释放的位置和震源强度的估算最终被人们所了解，该事故代表了反演模型的实际测试案例。对于我们的源重构，我们不使用任何先验知识。相反，我们仅使用可用的 131 I测量值来估算源位置和排放变化。随后，我们使用匈牙利当局提供的有关源术语的部分信息来验证我们的结果。对于源确定，我们首先执行大气传输模型的后向运行，并获得我们研究领域的每个网格单元的源-受体敏感性（SRS）矩阵。我们使用来自全球预报系统（GFS）和欧洲中型天气预报中心（ECMWF）天气预报模型的气象分析数据驱动的两个离散模型FLEXPART和Hysplit。其次，我们使用最近开发的逆方法，即具有自适应先验协方差的最小二乘法（LS-APC），根据测量值和计算出的SRS矩阵确定 131 I排放及其随时间的变化。对于我们模拟域中的每个网格单元，我们使用贝叶斯模型选择来评估在该单元中生成释放的可能性。模型选择过程还提供有关最适合源项重构的色散模型的信息。第三，我们选择释放的最可能位置及其相关的源术语，并进行正向模型模拟以研究碘释放的后果。将这些过程的结果与已知的发布位置进行比较，并报告有关其时间变化的信息。我们发现我们的算法可以成功定位实际的发布站点。估计的释放期也与国际原子能机构报告的值一致，所报告的总释放活性342？GBq在我们最可能模型的后验分布的99％置信区间内。

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