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Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

机译：气候变化对流层臭氧及其全球预算的影响

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We present the chemistry-climate model UMCAM in which a relatively detailedtropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office'sUnified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelledozoneitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozonemeasurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns.Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes ofanthropogenic emissions (SRES A2), climate change (due to doubling CO2), andidealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increaseof isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NOx). The globaltropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenicemissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O3 and its budgets throughchanges in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapourcauses a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lowertroposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean). On the other hand,an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by80% due to doubling CO2, contributes to ozone increases in theextratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface.Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PANdecomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions.Enhanced convectiontransports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resultingin an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-producedNOx increases by about 22% in the doubled CO2 climate and contributesto ozone production.The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows thatthe change of ozone is largely determined by background NOx levels: highNOx environment increases ozone production; isoprene emitting regions withlow NOx levels see local ozone decreases, and increase of ozone levels inthe remote region due to the influence of PAN chemistry. The calculated ozonechanges in response to a 50% increase of isoprene emissions are in the rangeof between −8 ppbv to 6 ppbv. Doubling soil-NOx emissions will increasetropospheric ozone considerably, with up to 5 ppbv in source regions.
机译：我们介绍了化学气候模型UM CAM ，其中相对详细的对流层化学模块已纳入英国气象局的统一模型版本4.5。我们在模拟臭氧/氮物种与一系列观测结果（包括地面臭氧测量，臭氧探空仪数据和一些飞机战役）之间取得了良好的协议。 4100次计算评估了模型对人为排放物预计变化的响应（SRES A2），气候变化（由于CO 2 增加一倍），以及与气候变化相关的生物排放变化（即异戊二烯排放增加50％，土壤NO x 排放增加一倍）。在所有2100 A2模拟中，对流层臭氧的负担都显着增加，其中最大的响应是人为排放量的增加。气候变化通过环流和气象变量的变化对O 3 及其预算产生不同的影响。水蒸气增加会导致臭氧的大量减少，尤其是在热带低层对流层（热带海洋的减少幅度超过10 ppbv）。另一方面，由于CO 2 增加一倍，平流层-对流层中臭氧的交换增加了80％，这促进了外向性对流层中臭氧的增加，并随后传播到了地面。预计更高的温度有利臭氧化学生产和PAN分解会导致某些地区的表面臭氧水平较高。增强的对流将臭氧前体更快地运出边界层，从而导致自由对流层中臭氧的产量增加。在CO 2 翻倍的气候中，闪电产生的NO x 增加约22％，并有助于臭氧的产生。 对异戊二烯排放量增加的响应表明臭氧的变化在很大程度上取决于背景NO x 的水平：高NO x 环境增加了臭氧的产生; NO x 含量较低的异戊二烯发射区由于PAN化学的影响，局部臭氧含量降低，而偏远地区的臭氧含量升高。响应于异戊二烯排放量增加50％而计算出的臭氧变化范围为-8 ppbv至6 ppbv。将土壤NO x 排放量加倍将大大增加对流层臭氧，在源区中最高可达5 ppbv。

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