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The Impact of Cumulus Parameterization on Rainfall Simulations over East Africa

机译：积云参数化对东非降雨模拟的影响

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The study explored the ability of four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) from Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate mean rainfall patterns, number of rainy days (NRD) and vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF) during the composite of wet years for the core rainfall seasons of March-April-May (MAM; 1989, 1998 and 2012) and Octo-ber-November-December (OND; 1997, 2006 and 2015) seasons. The CPSs used were Kain-Fritsch (KF), Kain-Fritsch with a moisture-advection based trigger function (KFT), Grell Dévényi (GRELL) and Betts Miller Janjic (BML). The simulations by the GRELL and KF schemes were clearly separated by the dry and wet rainfall gradient in the simulations. For example, the GRELL scheme rainfall simulations were drier over the eastern parts of the region bet-ter. The KF and KFT schemes generated wetter rainfall conditions mainly con-fined to the western parts of the region. The BML scheme simulations were not consistent with the observations. The western and eastern parts of the region were characterized by more and fewer NRD, in both the KF and GRELL schemes. The root mean square error (RMSE) and spatial correlation by KF scheme was 2 mm/day and 0.6. The GRELL scheme however simulated low correlation of 0.45 and RMSE of about 3.0 mm/day over most of the sub-domains. The moisture convergence biases were found to be larger conti-nentally and parts of the nearby Indian Ocean. The persisting rainfall biases constituting of too wet and dry conditions were associated with the KF and GRELL cumulus schemes. The findings from the current study are very funda-mental for the improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools and cumulus modification processes over the region. The accurate and higher skill rainfall forecasts would provide early warning information for disaster risk re-duction and the related risks on the livelihoods.
机译：该研究探索了来自天气和研究预测模型（WRF）的四种积云参数化方案（CPS）的能力，以模拟在2006年湿年复合期间的平均降雨模式，雨天数（NRD）和垂直积分水分通量（VIMF）。 3月-4月-5月（MAM; 1989、1998和2012）和Octo-ber-11月-12月（OND; 1997、2006和2015）的核心降雨季节。使用的CPS是Kain-Fritsch（KF），具有基于对流平流的触发功能的Kain-Fritsch（KFT），GrellDévényi（GRELL）和Betts Miller Janjic（BML）。在模拟中，通过GRELL和KF方案进行的模拟被干燥和湿润的降雨梯度清楚地分开了。例如，GRELL方案的降雨模拟在该地区东部更为干燥。 KF和KFT计划产生的降雨条件较为潮湿，主要局限于该地区的西部地区。 BML方案模拟与观察结果不一致。在KF和GRELL计划中，该地区的西部和东部地区的NRD越来越少。 KF方案的均方根误差（RMSE）和空间相关性为2 mm /天和0.6。然而，GRELL方案在大多数子域中模拟了0.45的低相关性和RMSE约3.0 mm /天。发现水分收敛偏差持续增大，并且在附近的印度洋部分地区。持续的降雨偏见构成了过于潮湿和干燥的状况，这与KF和GRELL积云方案有关。当前研究的结果对于改善该地区的数值天气预报（NWP）工具和积云修改过程非常基础。准确和高技能的降雨预报将为减少灾害风险和有关生计的风险提供预警信息。

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