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首页> 外文期刊>Atmospheric and Climate Sciences >Projection of Future Precipitation and Temperature Change over the Transboundary Koshi River Basin Using Regional Climate Model PRECIS
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Projection of Future Precipitation and Temperature Change over the Transboundary Koshi River Basin Using Regional Climate Model PRECIS

机译：利用区域气候模型PRECIS预测越界科士河流域的未来降水和温度变化

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The Koshi river basin sustains the livelihoods of millions of people in the upstream and downstream areas of the basin. People rely on monsoon rainfall for agricultural production, hydropower generation and other livelihood activities. Climate change is expected to have serious implication on its environment. To reduce the adverse impacts of disasters and to better understand the implication of climate change for the sustainable development, initiative in this regard is necessary. Analysis of past meteorological trends and future climate projections can give us a sense of what to expect and how to prepare ourselves and manage available resources. In this paper, we have used a high-resolution climate model, viz., Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), to project future climate scenario over the Koshi river basin for impact assessment. Three outputs of the Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Prediction (QUMP) simulations have been used to project the future climate. These simulations were selected from the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) using Hadley Centre Couple Model (HadCM3) based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The future projections are analysed for three time slices 2011-2040 (near future), 2041-2070 (middle of the century) and 2071-2098 (distant future). Despite quantitative wet and cold bias, the model was able to resolve the seasonal pattern reasonably well. The model projects a decrease in rainfall in the near future and a progressive increase towards the end of the century. The projected change in rainfall is non-uniform, with increase over the southern plains and the middle mountains and decrease over the trans-Himalayan region. Simulation suggests that rainy days will be less frequent but more intense over the southern plains towards the end of the century. Further, the model projections indicate significant warming towards the end of the century. The rate of warming is slightly higher over the trans-Himalayan region during summer and over the southern plains during winter.
机译：甲子流域维持了流域上游和下游地区数百万人的生计。人们依靠季风降雨从事农业生产，水力发电和其他生计活动。预计气候变化将对其环境产生严重影响。为了减少灾害的不利影响并更好地了解气候变化对可持续发展的影响，在这方面必须采取主动行动。对过去的气象趋势和未来的气候预测进行分析可以使我们对预期的期望以及如何做好自我准备和管理可用资源有所了解。在本文中，我们使用了高分辨率气候模型，即“提供区域气候影响研究（PRECIS）”，以预测科希河流域未来的气候情景进行影响评估。模型预测中的不确定性量化（QUMP）模拟的三个输出已用于预测未来的气候。这些模拟是根据IPCC SRES A1B排放情景，使用Hadley中心耦合模型（HadCM3）从17个成员的扰动物理集合（PPE）中选择的。对2011-2040年（不久的将来），2041-2070年（本世纪中叶）和2071-2098年（遥远的未来）三个时间段的未来预测进行了分析。尽管存在定量的湿偏和冷偏，该模型仍能够很好地解决季节性模式。该模型预测在不久的将来降雨将减少，到本世纪末逐渐增加。预计的降雨变化是不均匀的，在南部平原和中部山区有所增加，而在喜马拉雅山跨地区则有所减少。模拟表明，到本世纪末，南部平原的雨天将减少，但雨季将更加频繁。此外，模型预测表明到本世纪末将出现明显的变暖。夏季，跨喜马拉雅地区和冬季的南部平原的升温速率略高。

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