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Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations

机译：中国西北干旱地区的预计气候变化：区域气候模式模拟的集合

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摘要

The projected temperature and precipitation-change under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China (NWAC) were analyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulations: the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0 (RegCM4) forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1); the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean coupled HadGEM version 2 (HadGEM2-AO); and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model (NorESM1-M). Model validation indicated that the multimodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) in the middle of the 21st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation shows a significant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; but in summer, precipitation is projected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future.
机译：使用三个高分辨率动态降尺度模拟的合奏，使用中国西北干旱地区的耦合模型比较项目第五阶段模型对不同排放情景下的预计温度和降水变化进行了分析：区域气候模型的模拟由北京气候中心气候系统模型版本1.1（BCC_CSM1.1）强制的版本4.0（RegCM4）;由大气-海洋耦合的HadGEM版本2（HadGEM2-AO）强制实施的Hadley Center全球环境模型版本3区域气候模型（HadGEM3-RA）;以及由挪威社区地球系统模型（NorESM1-M）强制实施的天气研究和预报（WRF）模型。模型验证表明，多模型模拟很好地再现了温度和降水的时空分布。在21世纪中叶，在4.5和8.5代表性浓度途径情景下（分别为RCP4.5和RCP8.5），预计NWAC的温度将升高，但在RCP8.5情景下，变暖趋势更大。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，春季和冬季降水呈明显增加趋势;但是在夏季，塔里木盆地和准gar尔盆地的降水预计会减少。西北地区未来的区域平均温度和降水显示出增加的趋势。同时，未来冬季这些地区冬季平均温度和降水的巨大变化可能引发更多的极端寒冷事件和强烈降雪事件。

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